93% probability China's stock of aggregate financing to the real economy grows at least 7.0% year-on-year in October 2026 — after 9% in July, 7.4% in June and 8.2% in January. Money supply is one half of the expansion question; credit is the other.
China's total social financing reached CNY431.26 trillion as of 31 July 2026, up 9% from a year earlier. Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy was CNY462.06 trillion at end-June, up 7.4% year-on-year, and the stock rose 8.2% in January. Forecasts had expected aggregate financing growth to slow from 8.4% in 2025 to 8.0% in 2026. Source: People's Bank of China.
We lock a binary: China's stock of aggregate financing to the real economy grows at least 7.0% year-on-year in October 2026. Confidence 93%.
This is the distinction that decides whether monetary expansion becomes inflation. M2 measures money created; total social financing measures credit actually extended into the real economy — and the gap between them is where China's difficulty sits. Commentary on 2026 has described an economy flushed with cash but starved of demand. TSF stock growth has nonetheless held between roughly 7.4% and 9%, and our floor sits below the bottom of that observed range. Confidence 93%, not higher, because TSF is a large aggregate that moves with local-government bond issuance, which is policy-timed and lumpy: a pause in the issuance programme would slow the stock growth rate visibly. Scored on the year-on-year growth of the STOCK of aggregate financing, not the monthly flow, which is far more volatile and frequently negative in some months.
RAOSCAFF locks P-228 on 2026-08-27, before the October release. Scored against the year-on-year growth of China's stock of aggregate financing to the real economy versus a 7.0% floor.
TSF moves with policy-timed local-government bond issuance, which is lumpy — a pause in the programme would slow stock growth visibly.