RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-229
Prediction Series · P-229

Half the year, half the guidance — EUR 22.5bn floor, at 92%.

92% probability Enel's FY2026 ordinary EBITDA reaches at least EUR 22.5bn. The company guided EUR 23.1-23.6bn and delivered EUR 11.8bn in the first half, up 3%. We lock a threshold EUR 600m BELOW the bottom of management's own range.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored floor, European utility Locked · 2026-08-29 · before the FY2026 results Resolves · ~2027-03-18 · Enel FY2026 consolidated results (enel.com investor relations) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 ORDINARY EBITDA >= EUR 22.5bn yes/no
Enel FY2026 ordinary EBITDA · our locked floor
EUR 22.5bn
full-year ordinary EBITDA · vs EUR 23.1-23.6bn guided

Enel reported first-half 2026 ordinary EBITDA of EUR 11.8bn, up 3% year-on-year, and ordinary net income of EUR 3.9bn, also up 3%. Full-year 2026 guidance was confirmed at ordinary EBITDA of EUR 23.1-23.6bn and ordinary net income of EUR 7.1-7.3bn, with an EPS target of EUR 0.74. Source: Enel H1 2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Enel's FY2026 ordinary EBITDA is at least EUR 22.5bn — P = 0.92.

We lock a binary: Enel's reported ordinary EBITDA for full-year 2026 is EUR 22.5bn or higher. Confidence 92%.

The arithmetic is deliberately unflattering to us. Enel guided EUR 23.1-23.6bn. Half the year is already banked at EUR 11.8bn. Our threshold is EUR 22.5bn, which is EUR 600m below the floor of management's own range and requires only EUR 10.7bn from the second half against EUR 11.8bn delivered in the first. Enel would have to miss its own guidance floor by more than half a billion euros, having already reconfirmed it with six months of visibility, for this to resolve NO.

— 2 · Why a European utility, and why this metric

The series already locks US power. This is the regulated-network side of the same trade.

P-149 locks Constellation, which is US merchant generation exposed to power prices and data-centre demand. Enel is a different animal: an integrated utility whose earnings lean on regulated distribution networks across Italy, Spain and Latin America, where returns are set by regulators rather than by spot markets. Adding it gives the series a genuinely different macro exposure rather than a second bet on the same driver.

The metric matters as much as the company. Enel reports both a statutory EBITDA and an ORDINARY EBITDA that strips non-recurring items, and it guides on the ordinary figure. We score the ordinary figure, because scoring a guidance-anchored lock against a different line than the one that was guided is how a forecast quietly becomes unfalsifiable. Where the two diverge, the ordinary line governs.

The residual 8% is currency and regulation. A material adverse ruling in one of the Latin American concessions, or a sharp move in the Brazilian real or Chilean peso against the euro, is the realistic path to a miss. Neither is likely enough to move this below 0.92, but both are why it is not 0.97.

Locked on 2026-08-29 — scored against Enel's reported FY2026 ordinary EBITDA.

RAOSCAFF locks P-229 on 2026-08-29, before the FY2026 results. Scored against the ordinary EBITDA figure Enel reports for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-08-29 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-03-18 — Enel FY2026 consolidated results announcement
Source
Enel S.p.A. FY2026 consolidated results, ordinary EBITDA as reported by the company (enel.com investor relations)
Scored by
Binary: YES if Enel's reported FY2026 ORDINARY EBITDA is EUR 22.5bn or greater; NO if below. The ordinary (recurring) EBITDA line that management guides on — NOT statutory/reported EBITDA including non-recurring items, NOT ordinary net income, and NOT EBIT. Figure taken as published in euros; no currency restatement is applied by us.

The threshold sits EUR 600m below the floor of Enel's own confirmed guidance. A NO requires the company to miss its own range having already reconfirmed it at the half.