RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-230
Prediction Series · P-230

Volume, not price — 790kt of copper, at 90%.

90% probability Glencore produces at least 790,000 tonnes of own-sourced copper in 2026. Guidance is built on 840kt and was maintained at the half, with first-half copper output up 15%. We lock the tonnes, not the copper price, because one is forecastable and the other is not.

Type · Prediction Lock · production volume, diversified mining Locked · 2026-08-29 · before the FY2026 production report Resolves · ~2027-02-03 · Glencore FY2026 production report (glencore.com) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 own-sourced copper >= 790kt yes/no
Glencore FY2026 own-sourced copper · our locked floor
790kt
own-sourced copper production · vs 840kt guidance basis

Glencore reported first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of USD 10.1bn, up 86%, on a copper rally and near-record marketing performance. First-half own-sourced copper production rose 15%. Full-year 2026 illustrative EBITDA of USD 19.7bn was framed on production of copper 840kt, zinc 720kt, steelmaking coal 31Mt and energy coal 98.5Mt, with production guidance maintained. Source: Glencore H1 2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Glencore's FY2026 own-sourced copper production is at least 790kt — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary: Glencore's reported full-year 2026 own-sourced copper production is 790,000 tonnes or more. Confidence 90%.

Guidance is framed on 840kt and was maintained at the half-year, with first-half copper output up 15% year-on-year. Our threshold is 790kt, six percent below the guidance basis.

— 2 · Why we lock tonnes and refuse the price

Glencore's profit doubled on a copper rally. That is exactly the number we will not forecast.

The eye-catching figure in this result is adjusted EBITDA of USD 10.1bn, up 86%. Almost none of that is predictable. It is the product of the copper price, which we do not forecast, and a marketing division whose near-record half depends on volatility and dislocation that nobody schedules. Locking FY2026 EBITDA would be locking the copper price with extra steps.

Production tonnage is a different object. It is set by mine plans, grades and permits that are largely fixed a year ahead, it is reported quarterly against explicit guidance, and management restates that guidance in public every three months. This is the series doctrine applied to a commodity producer: lock what is knowable, refuse what is not.

The residual 10% is genuine and specific to mining. Guidance downgrades on grade, weather, community disruption or a smelter outage are ordinary events in this industry, not tail risks, and Glencore has issued them before. Six percent of headroom is a real buffer, not a rounding allowance, and it is why this sits at 0.90 rather than the 0.93-0.94 we give to a guidance floor in a manufacturing or services business.

Locked on 2026-08-29 — scored against Glencore's reported FY2026 own-sourced copper production.

RAOSCAFF locks P-230 on 2026-08-29, before the FY2026 production report. Scored against own-sourced copper tonnage as reported by Glencore for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-08-29 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-02-03 — Glencore full-year 2026 production report
Source
Glencore plc FY2026 production report, own-sourced copper production, total kilotonnes (glencore.com investor relations)
Scored by
Binary: YES if Glencore's reported FY2026 OWN-SOURCED copper production is 790kt or greater; NO if below. Own-sourced production only — third-party purchased and agency volumes handled by the marketing segment are EXCLUDED, as are copper-equivalent aggregations across metals. Copper only, not zinc, nickel or cobalt.

We lock the tonnes, not the EBITDA. The 86% profit jump came from the copper price and a near-record marketing half; neither is forecastable and neither is being forecast here.