93% probability Dr Reddy's reports consolidated revenue from operations of at least Rs 7,400 crore in Q2 FY2027. Q1 landed around Rs 8,071-8,100 crore. Two credible sources give opposite year-on-year directions for that same quarter, so this lock is built on the level, which they agree on, and never on the growth rate, which they do not.
Dr Reddy's Q1 FY2027: one report gives consolidated revenues of Rs 8,071 crore, up 6% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter; another gives revenue from operations of Rs 8,099.80 crore, down 5.51% year-on-year from Rs 8,572.10 crore. EBITDA was Rs 1,009 crore at a 12.5% margin. Profit was reduced by lower lenalidomide revenues and a Rs 2,397mn provision on semaglutide API, roughly a 3-point margin drag. Source: Dr Reddy's Q1 FY2027 results and contemporaneous reporting.
We lock a binary: Dr Reddy's reported consolidated revenue from operations for Q2 FY2027 is Rs 7,400 crore or higher. Confidence 93%.
Q1 FY2027 came in at roughly Rs 8,071-8,100 crore. Our threshold is Rs 7,400 crore, about 8.5% below that. A NO requires a sequential decline of more than eight percent in a business whose base is largely contracted generics volume.
This is worth stating plainly rather than smoothing over. For the same quarter, one source reports consolidated revenues of Rs 8,071 crore and calls it up 6% year-on-year. Another reports revenue from operations of Rs 8,099.80 crore and calls it down 5.51% year-on-year, from Rs 8,572.10 crore. Those two year-on-year statements are irreconcilable.
What they agree on is the level. Rs 8,071 crore and Rs 8,099.80 crore differ by 0.4%, which is the ordinary gap between a rounded headline and a line item. It is the COMPARISON that diverges, which is the signature of different consolidation bases or a restated prior-year quarter rather than a factual dispute about the current one.
So we locked what the evidence supports. A level floor is scoreable against a single published number in the Q2 filing and is immune to whichever prior-year base turns out to be correct. A growth-rate lock would have inherited the conflict and become unscoreable at resolution, which is the failure mode where a forecast quietly stops being falsifiable. Readers can check our discipline against P-226, where China's M2 levels failed to reconcile across sources and we locked the growth rate and refused the level. The rule is the same in both directions: lock the thing the sources agree on.
The residual 7% is real. Q1 profit was already hit by lower lenalidomide revenues as that opportunity erodes and by a Rs 2,397mn provision against semaglutide API, roughly three points of margin. Those are profit effects rather than revenue effects, but the lenalidomide decline does reach the top line, and a sharper step-down there is the most plausible route to a miss.
RAOSCAFF locks P-232 on 2026-08-29, before the Q2 FY2027 release. Scored against the consolidated revenue from operations figure published in the company's Q2 FY2027 results.
Sources conflict on Q1's year-on-year direction (+6% versus -5.51%) while agreeing on its level to within 0.4%. This lock is built on the level for exactly that reason.