91% probability ASML's FY2026 total net sales reach at least EUR 40bn. Guidance was raised twice, from EUR 36-40bn to EUR 43-45bn. We lock the top of the OLD range, because a freshly raised guide is the point of maximum optimism and minimum elapsed proof.
ASML reported Q1 2026 total net sales of EUR 8.8bn with net income of EUR 2.8bn, and Q2 2026 total net sales of EUR 9.3bn with a gross margin of 54.0% and net income of EUR 2.9bn — first-half net sales of EUR 18.1bn, up 17.2% on the first half of 2025. Guidance for FY2026 was raised from EUR 36-40bn (gross margin 51-53%) to EUR 43-45bn (gross margin 54-56%), citing demand for advanced chipmaking tools in logic and memory. Q2 outperformance came largely from Installed Base Management sales of EUR 2.8bn, EUR 300m above expectation. Source: ASML Q1 and Q2 2026 financial results.
We lock a binary: ASML's reported total net sales for full-year 2026 are EUR 40bn or higher. Confidence 91%.
EUR 40bn is not an arbitrary haircut. It is precisely the top of the guidance range ASML held before it raised — EUR 36-40bn — and it sits EUR 3bn below the floor of the range it holds now.
ASML raised FY2026 guidance twice, most recently to EUR 43-45bn on the back of AI-driven demand. That is genuine, and the first half supports it: EUR 18.1bn, up 17.2% year-on-year, with Q2 beating on installed-base service revenue. But a freshly raised guide is the point of maximum management optimism and minimum elapsed proof, and anchoring a probability on it inherits that optimism rather than testing it.
The arithmetic is the reason for care. Half the year delivered EUR 18.1bn. The new range implies a second half of EUR 24.9-26.9bn — roughly EUR 12.5-13.5bn a quarter, a 34% to 45% step up from Q2's EUR 9.3bn. Tool revenue is recognised on shipment and acceptance, so that ramp is a scheduling and logistics claim as much as a demand claim, and schedules slip. Our EUR 40bn threshold implies a second half of EUR 21.9bn, about EUR 11bn a quarter, an 18% step up. That is a meaningfully easier thing to be right about, and it is what 91% is priced against.
The residual 9% is that ramp plus export control. Further tightening of China restrictions is the specific known hazard for this company, and it is not a tail risk in the way weather is — it is a policy decision that has already moved ASML's numbers before.
P-240 locks TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue. Both locks are exposed to AI capital expenditure, and we are not going to pretend they are independent draws. The difference is where in the chain they sit and how much is already de-risked. TSMC's Q3 is a single quarter that is nearly over, with two months of monthly revenue already published. ASML's is a full year that needs a second-half ramp which has not started to show yet.
The interesting outcome is a split. If TSMC resolves HIT and ASML resolves MISS, the reading is that the money is flowing into wafer output from capacity that is already installed, rather than into new tool installations — which is a statement about where the AI build-out actually is in its cycle. That is worth more than either lock in isolation.
RAOSCAFF locks P-235 on 2026-08-29, before the Q4 and full-year results. Scored against total net sales as reported by ASML for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
EUR 40bn is the ceiling of the guidance ASML held before it raised, not the floor of the guidance it holds now. The new range needs a 34-45% second-half step up; ours needs 18%.