93% probability Deere's fiscal 2026 net income reaches at least USD 4.5bn. Q3 net income was USD 1.379bn, the first year-on-year profit gain in roughly three years, and the company raised its guidance floor to USD 4.75bn. We lock the floor it held before the raise.
Deere reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 net income of USD 1.379bn, or USD 5.10 per diluted share, up from USD 4.75 a year earlier — the first year-on-year profit gain in roughly three years. Total net sales and revenues rose 5% to USD 12.61bn, with equipment net sales of USD 10.999bn against USD 10.357bn. Construction and forestry net sales climbed 18% to USD 3.62bn with operating profit up 84% to USD 436m. Deere raised the low end of full-year net income guidance to USD 4.75bn from USD 4.5bn, holding the top at USD 5.0bn, lifted equipment operations cash flow guidance to USD 5.0-5.5bn, and kept the effective tax rate outlook at 24-26%. The company affirmed its view that 2026 is the bottom of the agriculture equipment cycle. Source: Deere Q3 FY2026 results, 21 August 2026.
We lock a binary: Deere's reported net income attributable to Deere & Company for fiscal 2026 is USD 4.5bn or higher. Confidence 93%.
Deere raised the low end of its guidance to USD 4.75bn from USD 4.5bn in August. We lock USD 4.5bn — the floor the company held before the raise — with three quarters of the fiscal year already reported.
This tranche anchors twice on prior guidance rather than freshly raised guidance, and the two cases are usefully different. ASML raised on an AI-driven demand surge that still needs a steep second-half ramp to materialise. Deere raised because construction and forestry is outperforming while agriculture remains weak — net sales in that segment up 18% and operating profit up 84%, against a farm business the company itself describes as sitting at the bottom of its cycle.
The mix matters for how much the raise should move us. A guidance floor lifted on the strength of one segment offsetting weakness in the core is more fragile than one lifted because everything is working, because it depends on that offset persisting. Anchoring at USD 4.5bn rather than USD 4.75bn costs us very little in headline confidence and removes the need to be right about the offset holding for one more quarter.
What makes this the second-highest confidence in the tranche is elapsed time. Deere's fiscal year ends in early November, three quarters are reported, and only the final quarter remains between the lock and the result. There is simply less unknown left than in any other lock here except Visa's.
The residual 7% is tariffs, which management has flagged as a live headwind, and the ordinary possibility of a fourth-quarter writedown or charge in a business at a cycle trough.
RAOSCAFF locks P-238 on 2026-08-29, before the fourth-quarter and full-year results. Scored against net income attributable to Deere & Company for fiscal 2026.
USD 4.5bn was Deere's own guidance floor until August. Three of four fiscal quarters are already reported.