First New Zealand lock in 240 — NZ$1.18bn, at 92%.

We lock a binary: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's reported operating revenue for the six months to 30 September 2026 is NZ$1.18bn or higher. Confidence 92%.

The company has guided approximately NZ$1.24bn for that half. Our threshold sits about 4.8% below its own number, on a half that was already two months elapsed when this was locked.

This series has locked forecasts on US, Chinese, Indian, Japanese, European, Australian and Taiwanese companies and macro series. It had never once locked a New Zealand listed company. We checked before building this tranche rather than assuming, and the count was zero. For a firm operating out of New Zealand that is an odd blind spot, and this closes it.

Fisher & Paykel goes first because it is the cleanest guidance-anchored lock on the board here. It is one of the largest companies on the NZX, it publishes an explicit half-year revenue expectation rather than only a full-year range, and its March year end means the half being forecast reports in November 2026 rather than the following August. Almost every other guidance-anchored NZX lock resolves in about a year, which is a fact about New Zealand's reporting calendar rather than a choice we made.

The residual 8% is almost entirely the New Zealand dollar. F&P earns the overwhelming majority of its revenue offshore and reports in NZD, and the guidance is explicitly struck at exchange rates as at 31 July 2026. A materially stronger kiwi between then and 30 September compresses the reported figure without a single unit of demand changing. The scoring line below therefore fixes that we take the reported NZD number and apply no currency restatement of our own.

This tranche exists because of a question about whether money can be made trading the New Zealand market. It is not an answer to that question, and it should not be read as one. Every lock in this slate forecasts a company fundamental the company itself has guided. None forecasts a share price, none expresses a view on whether the shares are cheap or dear, and none is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

The series has refused directional single-stock price calls throughout, for two reasons that do not weaken because the market is domestic: prices are the least forecastable object we could pick, and a public directional price call functions as investment advice regardless of what disclaimer sits under it. What a record like this can honestly establish, over enough reporting cycles, is whether we forecast New Zealand corporate fundamentals well. That is a narrower claim than the one the original question invited, and it is the one the evidence can actually carry.