Several EBITDAFs, one criterion — NZ$1,250m, at 91%.

We lock a binary: Infratil's reported proportionate operational EBITDAF for FY2027, excluding corporate costs, is NZ$1,250m or higher. Confidence 91%.

Guidance is NZ$1,300-1,400m. Our threshold sits NZ$50m, or 3.8%, below the floor of that range.

Infratil is a holding company whose value sits in stakes in businesses it does not wholly own — CDC Data Centres, One NZ, Longroad Energy, RetireAustralia and others. That structure forces several different earnings measures to coexist: consolidated EBITDAF, which reflects accounting control rather than economic interest; proportionate EBITDAF, which scales each asset by Infratil's ownership; and each of those before or after corporate costs, which the company guides as a separate NZ$150-170m line.

Those measures differ by hundreds of millions of dollars. A threshold of NZ$1,250m is a demanding claim against one of them and a trivial or impossible one against another, so an unnamed metric would not be a forecast at all — it would be an argument waiting to happen at resolution. The scoring line names proportionate operational EBITDAF excluding corporate costs, which is the basis the guidance was issued on. This is the same failure mode as P-233, where Max Healthcare published two revenue lines about NZ$600 crore apart.

On the substance, 21% like-for-like growth at the midpoint is a genuinely ambitious guide, and most of it rests on CDC Data Centres, an unlisted asset riding the same AI capital expenditure wave that P-235 and P-240 are exposed to. That concentration is the real risk in this lock, not the New Zealand economy. The residual 9% is a data-centre build or contracting slip, and the valuation and consolidation judgements that follow from holding unlisted assets.