91% probability a2 Milk's FY2027 revenue reaches at least NZ$2,000m. FY2026 revenue was NZ$1,974.9m, up 12.4%, and FY2027 guidance is mid-single-digit revenue growth with an EBITDA margin near 15%. Our floor needs only 1.3% growth on the audited FY2026 base.
The a2 Milk Company reported FY2026 revenue of NZ$1,974.9m, up 12.4%, with EBITDA down 2.5% to NZ$284.4m as fourth-quarter supply chain disruption materially impacted China label infant milk formula availability and margins. Underlying EBITDA, excluding a2 Pokeno losses and one-off transformation costs, rose 5.4% to NZ$307.6m at a 15.6% margin. Gross margin was 47.7%, down 3.4 percentage points. FY2027 guidance is for revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range and an EBITDA margin of approximately 15%, with two new China-label infant milk formula products planned for the first half. Source: a2 Milk FY2026 annual result.
We lock a binary: the a2 Milk Company's reported revenue for FY2027 is NZ$2,000m or higher. Confidence 91%.
FY2026 revenue was NZ$1,974.9m. Our threshold requires growth of about 1.3%, against guidance for mid-single-digit growth.
a2 Milk did not guide a revenue number. It guided a growth rate — mid-single-digit percentage — and an EBITDA margin of approximately 15%. Presenting a level threshold as though it were tested directly against company guidance would misdescribe what is actually happening, so the conversion is shown rather than buried: applying mid-single-digit growth to the audited FY2026 base of NZ$1,974.9m implies something in the region of NZ$2,055m to NZ$2,075m, and our NZ$2,000m floor sits roughly 3% below the bottom of that implied band.
This matters because a converted guide is weaker evidence than a guided level. The conversion inherits whatever ambiguity sits in the phrase 'mid-single-digit', and it inherits the base. We are stating that explicitly rather than letting the lock borrow the authority of a number the company never published.
The residual 9% is concentrated and identifiable. FY2026 EBITDA fell 2.5% despite revenue rising 12.4%, because fourth-quarter supply chain disruption hit China label infant formula availability directly. Gross margin dropped 3.4 points. If that disruption persists into FY2027, or if the two new China-label products slip, the revenue line is exposed — this is a business whose growth is unusually concentrated in one product category in one country, subject to Chinese label registration and a declining birth cohort. That concentration is the argument for 0.91 rather than 0.94, notwithstanding that the threshold itself only asks for 1.3%.
RAOSCAFF locks P-245 on 2026-08-30, before the FY2027 result. Scored against total revenue as reported by the a2 Milk Company for the year to 30 June 2027.
The company guided a rate, not a level. The conversion from NZ$1,974.9m is shown in the brief so the lock does not borrow authority from a number a2 Milk never published.