94% probability Siemens' fiscal 2026 EPS pre-PPA reaches at least EUR 10.70. Guidance was raised to EUR 11.20-11.50 after a record Q3 with orders of EUR 27.9bn and a book-to-bill of 1.34. We lock the floor Siemens held before the raise, with three quarters already banked.
Siemens reported Q3 FY2026 orders of a record EUR 27.9bn, up 13%, with revenue up 7% to EUR 20.8bn for a book-to-bill ratio of 1.34. Profit Industrial Business rose 25% to a record EUR 3.5bn. Basic EPS was EUR 2.93 and EPS before purchase price allocation accounting was EUR 3.14. Free cash flow reached EUR 4.1bn, up 40%. Full-year EPS pre-PPA guidance was lifted to EUR 11.20-11.50 from EUR 10.70-11.10, with group comparable revenue growth still targeted at 6-8% and book-to-bill above 1. Source: Siemens Q3 FY2026 earnings release.
We lock a binary: Siemens' reported basic EPS before purchase price allocation for fiscal 2026 is EUR 10.70 or higher. Confidence 94%.
EUR 10.70 is not an arbitrary number. It is exactly the floor of the guidance range Siemens held before it raised to EUR 11.20-11.50.
Most locks in this series forecast a period that has largely not happened yet. This one does not. Siemens runs an October-to-September fiscal year, three quarters are already reported, and only a few weeks of the fourth remain between this lock and the year end. The remaining uncertainty is a single partial quarter plus the audit, which is about as little unknown as a full-year corporate lock can carry.
The order book reinforces it. Q3 orders were a record EUR 27.9bn with a book-to-bill of 1.34, meaning Siemens booked a third more work than it billed, and Profit Industrial Business rose 25% to a record EUR 3.5bn. Free cash flow was up 40%. A company does not typically miss the bottom of its own superseded guidance from that position.
This is the third lock in the series anchored on prior rather than raised guidance, after P-235 on ASML and P-238 on Deere. The reasoning is the same each time: a freshly raised guide is the point of maximum management optimism with the least elapsed proof, so anchoring on it inherits the optimism instead of testing it. Here it costs us almost nothing — with three quarters banked, EUR 10.70 is comfortable and EUR 11.20 would still probably have been fine.
Siemens guides on EPS before purchase price allocation accounting, which removes the amortisation charges arising from acquisitions. In Q3 alone the two measures differed by 21 cents. Annualised, that gap is comfortably wider than the distance between our threshold and the guidance floor, so a criterion that failed to specify which EPS it meant would be decided by the choice of measure rather than by the company's performance.
The criterion below names the pre-PPA measure, which is the one the guidance was issued on. The residual 6% is a fourth-quarter charge, an impairment, or a currency move on the substantial non-euro revenue base.
RAOSCAFF locks P-249 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 annual results. Scored against basic EPS before purchase price allocation as reported by Siemens for the fiscal year to 30 September 2026.
Three quarters are reported and the fiscal year ends four weeks after this lock. EUR 10.70 is the floor Siemens held before raising to EUR 11.20-11.50.