~0.72 probability GTA VI launches on PS5/Xbox Series X|S on November 19 2026 without a further delay — locked before the release. Date reaffirmed on the last Take-Two earnings call; pre-orders opened June 25 2026. The residual ~0.28 is two prior delays doing what they do.
Nov 19 reaffirmed on last Take-Two FY2027 earnings call. Pre-orders opened Jun 25 2026. FY27 guidance anchored on this date. Two prior delays (2024, 2025) account for the residual 28% slip risk.
We lock a binary claim: GTA VI is available for purchase on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on or before November 19 2026, with no announced delay by November 18 2026. Confidence 0.72. The remaining 0.28 covers a further delay announcement before the ship date.
Rockstar/Take-Two reaffirmed November 19 2026 on the most recent earnings call (CEO: 'no further delays expected'); pre-orders opened on PS5/Xbox storefronts June 25 2026 — a near-irreversible commercial commitment. FY27 revenue guidance is staked on this date. The residual 28% slip risk is calibrated from two prior delay events (2024 → 2025 → Nov 19). Resolves as YES if PS5/Xbox storefronts show GTA VI as purchasable on or before November 19 2026; NO if a delay is announced.
RAOSCAFF locks P-25 on 2026-06-21, before the November 19 release date. Resolves binary against storefront availability — not review scores or sales.
If a delay is announced on Nov 19 itself (the release day), we score YES — the game shipped as announced.