RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-251
Prediction Series · P-251

The mining leg of a steelmaker — 17 million tonnes, at 90%.

90% probability ArcelorMittal ships at least 17.0 million tonnes of iron ore in 2026, against maintained guidance of 18 million tonnes. Europe reached three-year EBITDA highs and Indian shipments hit records, but this lock is about tonnes moved, not steel prices earned.

Type · Prediction Lock · shipment volume, mining leg of an integrated steelmaker Locked · 2026-09-02 · before the FY2026 result Resolves · ~2027-02-11 · ArcelorMittal FY2026 results (corporate.arcelormittal.com) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 IRON ORE shipments >= 17.0 Mt yes/no
ArcelorMittal FY2026 iron ore shipments · our locked floor
17.0 Mt
full-year iron ore shipments · vs 18 Mt guided

ArcelorMittal maintained guidance for 18 million tonnes of iron ore shipments in fiscal 2026. In Q2 2026, AM/NS India shipments reached an 8 million tonne annualised run rate, a record for the joint venture, while Europe hit three-year EBITDA highs following new trade measures implemented in July 2026. Third-quarter shipments were expected to be stable to higher versus Q2, which management noted would be a counter-seasonal outcome. Strategic growth projects are expected to contribute $1.8bn from 2026 onwards, with $300m achieved in the first half and a further $400m expected in the second. Source: ArcelorMittal Q2 2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

ArcelorMittal's FY2026 iron ore shipments are at least 17.0 Mt — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary: ArcelorMittal's reported iron ore shipments for full-year 2026 are 17.0 million tonnes or higher. Confidence 90%.

Guidance is 18 million tonnes and was maintained. Our threshold sits about 5.6% below it.

— 2 · What this lock is, and what it deliberately is not

This is the mining leg. It is not a bet on steel prices, and we will not dress it up as one.

ArcelorMittal is one of the world's largest steelmakers, and the obvious thing to forecast would be steel. We are not doing that, for a reason worth stating rather than hiding: the figure we could verify as explicitly guided is iron ore shipments at 18 million tonnes. Steel shipment guidance was not something we could confirm to the same standard, and locking a number we could not verify as guided would be manufacturing precision.

So this brief locks what the company actually put a number against. That makes it a narrower claim than a headline steel forecast, and readers should hold it as such. Iron ore shipment volume is driven by mine plans, logistics and maintenance schedules rather than by the steel cycle, which is precisely why it is forecastable and steel earnings are not.

The operating backdrop is constructive without being decisive here. Europe reached three-year EBITDA highs after trade measures took effect in July 2026, Indian shipments through the AM/NS joint venture hit records at an 8 Mt annualised run rate, and management guided Q3 shipments stable to higher against Q2 in what would be a counter-seasonal outcome.

The residual 10% is ordinary mining risk: weather, rail and port disruption, or a decision to curtail volumes into weak pricing. Mining guidance downgrades are routine events in this industry rather than tail cases, which is why this sits at 0.90 and not higher.

Locked on 2026-09-02 — scored against ArcelorMittal's reported FY2026 iron ore shipments.

RAOSCAFF locks P-251 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against iron ore shipments as reported by ArcelorMittal for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-09-02 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-02-11 — ArcelorMittal FY2026 full-year results
Source
ArcelorMittal S.A. FY2026 results, IRON ORE shipments in million tonnes (corporate.arcelormittal.com investor relations)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2026 IRON ORE shipments are 17.0 million tonnes or greater; NO if below. Iron ore shipments specifically — NOT steel shipments, NOT crude steel production, NOT EBITDA, and NOT the AM/NS India joint venture in isolation. Full-year group figure as the company reports it against its own 18 Mt guidance basis.

Iron ore shipments are the figure the company put an explicit number against. Steel shipment guidance was not verifiable to the same standard, so we did not lock it.