92% probability Unilever's FY2026 underlying sales growth reaches at least 3.5%. The first half delivered 4.8%, of which 4.2 points were volume, and Q2 volume growth of 5.5% was the company's best quarterly volume performance in more than a decade.
Unilever reported H1 2026 underlying sales growth of 4.8%, comprising 4.2% underlying volume growth and 0.6% pricing. Performance accelerated in Q2, when underlying sales grew 5.8% and volume grew 5.5%, its best quarterly volume performance in more than a decade. Full-year 2026 underlying sales growth is expected within the multi-year guidance range of 4-6%, with around 3% underlying volume growth. Second-half underlying sales growth is expected at 4-5%, led by pricing. Underlying operating margin is expected to improve modestly versus 20.0% in 2025. Source: Unilever H1 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Unilever's reported underlying sales growth for full-year 2026 is 3.5% or higher. Confidence 92%.
The first half delivered 4.8% and the company expects the full year within a 4-6% range. Our threshold sits half a point below the floor of that range.
Consumer goods companies spent several years reporting growth that was almost entirely price. That flatters a headline while quietly shrinking the business, because customers eventually buy less. Unilever's H1 inverts it: of 4.8% underlying sales growth, 4.2 points came from volume and only 0.6 from pricing, and Q2 volume growth of 5.5% was its strongest quarterly volume performance in more than a decade.
That composition is the substantive support for this lock. Volume growth of that order does not reverse in a single half absent a demand shock, and it gives the company room to take pricing in the second half — which is exactly what it has guided, expecting 4-5% growth led by pricing rather than volume.
The comparison with P-248 is deliberate. Both Nestlé and Unilever are locked on their own defined growth measures rather than reported turnover, and both are running roughly the same headline rate. The difference is the mix: Nestlé's H1 was pricing-led with 1.5 points of volume, Unilever's was volume-led with 4.2. If both resolve HIT the identical outcome will have been reached from opposite directions, which is more informative than either lock alone.
The residual 8% is the second-half pricing pivot. Guidance depends on pricing carrying more of the load, and pricing is the component consumers push back on first.
RAOSCAFF locks P-252 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against underlying sales growth as reported and defined by Unilever for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
Read alongside P-248 on Nestlé. Same headline rate, opposite composition: Unilever volume-led at 4.2 points, Nestlé pricing-led with 1.5 points of volume.