91% probability Saudi Aramco's FY2026 capital expenditure reaches at least USD 48bn. Guidance is unchanged at USD 50-55bn and the first half already invested USD 25.1bn, with Zuluf and Fadhili expansions on track and Jafurah phase two in construction.
Saudi Aramco maintained unchanged 2026 capital expenditure guidance of USD 50-55bn, with allocation of 65-70% to upstream, 20-25% to downstream and 5-10% to new energies. H1 2026 capital investments totalled USD 25.1bn. Free cash flow was USD 12.3bn in Q2 and USD 30.9bn in H1, while free cash flow excluding working capital changes rose 53% to USD 60.3bn from USD 39.4bn in H1 2025. The East-West Pipeline was ramped to its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels per day in Q1 and continued to be utilised through H1. The Zuluf crude oil increment and Fadhili Gas Plant expansion are on track for completion in 2026 and 2027 respectively; Jafurah phase one maintained steady sales gas and condensate production while phase two continued procurement and construction, expected to complete in 2027. Source: Saudi Aramco H1 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Saudi Aramco's reported capital expenditure for full-year 2026 is USD 48bn or higher. Confidence 91%.
Guidance is USD 50-55bn and was left unchanged. H1 capital investment was USD 25.1bn, so the threshold asks the second half to spend USD 22.9bn, less than the first half did.
The obvious things to forecast for an oil major are production and profit, and both are largely the oil price wearing a corporate disguise. Aramco's H1 free cash flow excluding working capital rose 53% to USD 60.3bn — a spectacular number that says more about crude and refining margins than about anything management decided.
Capital expenditure is different in kind. It is a budget, approved in advance, executed against a named project schedule, disclosed with an allocation split — 65-70% upstream, 20-25% downstream, 5-10% new energies — and reported against explicit guidance. The projects behind it are identifiable and time-bound: the Zuluf crude increment due in 2026, the Fadhili gas expansion in 2027, Jafurah phase two in construction. Half the year's spending is already banked. This is the same doctrine as P-230 on Glencore and P-250 on Petrobras — lock what is knowable, refuse what is not.
The residual 9% is the thing that makes Aramco different from an ordinary listed company. It is majority state-owned, and its capital plan sits inside Saudi fiscal policy. Riyadh has redirected Aramco's spending and dividend before when the budget required it, and a sharp sustained fall in crude would put that lever back in play. That is a political risk rather than an operational one, and it is why this sits at 0.91 rather than the 0.94 an equivalently-progressed corporate capex plan would earn.
The series had built 252 locks without a single Middle Eastern company, while simultaneously locking oil prices, gas prices and the production of Western and Latin American producers. Forecasting energy while omitting the region that holds the swing capacity is a real gap. Aramco is the natural place to start: it publishes half-year and annual results to international standards, guides capital expenditure explicitly, and names its major projects with completion years.
RAOSCAFF locks P-257 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 annual results. Scored against capital expenditure as reported by Saudi Aramco for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
Half the year's spending is already banked at USD 25.1bn. The distinct risk here is political: Aramco's capital plan sits inside Saudi fiscal policy, and that lever has been pulled before.