92% probability Roche's FY2026 group sales growth reaches at least 3% at constant exchange rates. H1 grew 6% at constant rates and fell 2% in Swiss francs on a surging currency. Those two figures describe the same six months, which is why the basis is named in the criterion.
Roche reported H1 2026 group sales growth of 6% at constant exchange rates and -2% as reported in Swiss francs, the divergence attributed to significant appreciation of the franc. The Pharmaceuticals Division grew 6% at constant exchange rates to CHF 23.6bn and the Diagnostics Division 3% at constant exchange rates to CHF 6.7bn. Core operating profit rose 10% and core EPS 9%. Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed for mid-single-digit group sales growth and high-single-digit core EPS growth, with a further dividend increase in Swiss francs expected. NOTE: reported H1 group sales levels differ across sources (CHF 29.3bn and CHF 30.4bn); the divisional figures sum to CHF 30.3bn. This lock does not rely on the level. Source: Roche H1 2026 results, 23 July 2026.
We lock a binary: Roche's reported group sales growth for full-year 2026, at constant exchange rates, is 3% or higher. Confidence 92%.
Guidance is reaffirmed at mid-single-digit growth and the first half delivered 6%. Our threshold sits meaningfully below both.
This is the clearest example in the series of why a scoring criterion must name its basis. Roche's first-half sales grew 6% at constant exchange rates and fell 2% as reported in Swiss francs, because the franc appreciated sharply against the currencies Roche actually sells in. Both figures are correct. They differ by eight percentage points and, more to the point, they differ in direction.
A criterion that said only "sales growth of at least 3%" would not be merely ambiguous. It would resolve HIT or MISS depending purely on which line the scorer happened to open, which is not a forecast at all. The criterion below names constant exchange rates, which is the basis Roche's guidance is issued on, and excludes the reported Swiss franc figure explicitly.
P-253 on SAP in this same tranche carries a milder version of the same hazard, where cloud revenue guidance is given at constant currencies while the reported euro figure will differ. Roche is the case that makes the principle unmissable.
While assembling this brief we found the H1 group sales level quoted inconsistently: CHF 29.3bn and CHF 30.4bn. The divisional split favours the higher figure, since Pharmaceuticals at CHF 23.6bn plus Diagnostics at CHF 6.7bn sums to CHF 30.3bn. We did not adjudicate between them and this lock does not require us to, because it scores a growth RATE, on which every source agrees at +6% for the half.
That is the same rule applied in P-226, where China's reported M2 levels failed to reconcile and we locked the growth rate, and in P-232, where two sources gave Dr Reddy's opposite year-on-year directions while agreeing on the level and we locked the level. Identify the quantity the sources agree about, build the falsifiable claim on that, and disclose the conflict rather than quietly picking a side.
The residual 8% is patent exposure. Roche's growth depends on newer launches outrunning erosion in its established portfolio, and biosimilar competition has cost it materially before. A pipeline setback or faster-than-expected erosion in a major franchise is the realistic route to falling below 3% at constant rates.
RAOSCAFF locks P-258 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against group sales growth at constant exchange rates as reported by Roche for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
H1 was +6% at constant rates and -2% in Swiss francs. Naming the basis is not pedantry here; it is the difference between a hit and a miss.