First Canadian lock — and three EPS numbers to choose from.

We lock a binary: Canadian National Railway's reported adjusted diluted EPS growth for full-year 2026 is 3.0% or higher. Confidence 92%.

Guidance was raised to mid-to-high single digits, which we read as roughly 5-9%. Our threshold sits below the bottom of that.

CN reported diluted EPS of C$2.06, adjusted diluted EPS of C$2.08, and adjusted diluted EPS at constant currency of C$2.09 for Q2 2026 — growth rates of 10%, 11% and 12% respectively. All three are correct and all three are published in the same release.

At a 3% threshold the choice would not flip this particular lock, but the principle does not depend on the margin being tight. A criterion that says only "EPS growth" delegates the outcome to whichever line the scorer happens to read, and that is not a forecast regardless of whether the answer coincides. The criterion below names adjusted diluted EPS growth, which is the basis the guidance is issued on, and excludes the reported and constant-currency variants.

On substance, railroads are among the more forecastable industrials. Volume is measured in revenue-tonne-miles and moves slowly, pricing is contracted, and the cost base is heavily fixed so incremental volume drops through. CN raised guidance twice this year in effect — moving from flattish volume assumptions in January to low single-digit RTM growth now — and Q2 delivered 11% revenue growth on 5% volume with record fuel efficiency.

The residual 8% is trade and currency. CN's network is the Canada-US corridor plus the Gulf, so tariff disruption to cross-border freight hits it directly, and a large share of revenue is US-dollar denominated against a Canadian-dollar reporting currency.

The series had locked the Bank of Canada's policy rate but never a Canadian corporate. This tranche closes five such gaps at once — Canada, Singapore, Norway, Mexico and Sweden all enter with their first company-level lock, each verified absent by grep against the scorecard rather than assumed.