Avengers: Doomsday — $200–260M opening, locked.

Avengers: Doomsday locked at a $200–260M domestic 3-day opening weekend (Dec 18–20 2026), finishing #1. Long-lead tracking projects ~$241.6M — inside the band. Confidence 60%; Dune: Messiah same-day release and no-IMAX constraint are the key risk factors.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI (box office) Locked · 2026-06-21 · before the Dec 18 2026 release Resolves · 2026-12-21 · Box Office Mojo domestic 3-day estimate Scored · binary band hit + #1 finish vs Comscore weekend chart

Locked domestic 3-day opening band

$200–260M

Dec 18–20 2026 · confidence 60%

Long-lead tracking midpoint ~$241.6M (inside band). Release date Dec 18 2026 confirmed. Dune: Messiah opens same day; no IMAX allocation for Doomsday. #1 finish is the secondary claim.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Domestic opening $200–260M and finishes #1.

We lock two linked claims: (a) Avengers: Doomsday domestic 3-day opening weekend (Dec 18–20 2026) falls in [$200M, $260M]; and (b) it finishes #1 on the Comscore domestic weekend chart. Long-lead tracking projects ~$241.6M — bracketed by our band. Confidence 60% on the joint claim.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Tracking midpoint $241M inside band; Dune same-day + no IMAX = the tail risk.

Long-lead tracking (Deadline/Comscore, as of Jun 2026) projects ~$241.6M for the Dec 18–20 weekend — inside our $200–260M band with room on both sides. Avengers brand + Disney marketing infrastructure anchors the floor. The risk factors: Dune: Messiah opens same day (Nov 19 originally, shifted to Dec 18), and Doomsday reportedly carries no IMAX screens, suppressing the premium-format ceiling. The $260M cap reflects those two constraints. Resolves against Box Office Mojo (Comscore) domestic 3-day estimate published by Dec 21 2026.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against Box Office Mojo domestic 3-day opening estimate, Dec 18–20 2026.

RAOSCAFF locks P-26 on 2026-06-21, before the December 18 release. Both legs (band + #1) must resolve YES for a full score.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: 2026-12-21 — Box Office Mojo (Comscore) domestic 3-day estimate for Dec 18–20 2026 weekend
Source: Box Office Mojo / Comscore domestic weekend chart (Dec 18–20 2026 issue)
Scored by: Binary: YES if domestic 3-day ∈ [$200M, $260M] AND finishes #1; NO otherwise

If the release date shifts from Dec 18, the resolution window shifts to the actual opening weekend.