RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-262
Prediction Series · P-262

First Mexican lock — and three EBITDA rates is why we locked capex.

90% probability América Móvil's FY2026 capital expenditure reaches at least USD 6.3bn, against guidance kept at about USD 7bn. Q2 revenue was MXN 241.1bn, up 3.1%. EBITDA growth was reported three different ways in the same quarter, which is precisely why this lock is on capex.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored capex floor, telecom Locked · 2026-09-02 · before the FY2026 result Resolves · ~2027-02-16 · América Móvil FY2026 results (americamovil.com) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE >= USD 6.3bn yes/no
América Móvil FY2026 capital expenditure · our locked floor
USD 6.3bn
full-year capital expenditure · vs about USD 7bn guided

América Móvil reported Q2 2026 revenue of MXN 241,071m, up 3.1% year on year, and EBITDA of MXN 95,908m, up 3.8% as reported, up 5.3% at constant exchange rates, and up 6.7% at constant exchange rates excluding a one-time charge in Mexico. Service revenue grew 3.4% in peso terms and 5.1% at constant exchange rates. Management kept full-year capital expenditure guidance at about USD 7bn, targets leverage of 1.2 to 1.5 times net debt to EBITDA, and expects a recovery in Brazil in the second half of 2026, improving in Q3 and stronger in Q4. Source: América Móvil Q2 2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

América Móvil's FY2026 capital expenditure is at least USD 6.3bn — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary: América Móvil's reported capital expenditure for full-year 2026 is USD 6.3bn or higher. Confidence 90%.

Guidance was kept at about USD 7bn. Our threshold sits roughly 10% below that.

— 2 · Three EBITDA growth rates for one quarter is why we did not lock EBITDA

Plus 3.8%, plus 5.3%, or plus 6.7%. All three describe Q2 2026.

América Móvil reported EBITDA growth of 3.8% as published, 5.3% at constant exchange rates, and 6.7% at constant exchange rates excluding a one-time charge in Mexico. Three figures, one quarter, nearly three percentage points apart end to end.

An EBITDA lock would therefore have needed the criterion to carry three qualifiers — which currency basis, and whether the one-time charge is in or out — before it meant anything, and any of those qualifiers being read differently at resolution would flip a tight threshold. Capital expenditure has no such problem. It is guided as a single dollar figure of about USD 7bn, it is reported as a single line, and it is a spending decision the company controls rather than an outcome the peso and the Brazilian real move around.

This is the same choice made in P-257 on Saudi Aramco and P-250 on Petrobras: where the headline financial metric is dominated by prices and currency, lock the capital plan instead. It is the part management actually decides.

The residual 10% is that telecom capex is genuinely discretionary within a year. Operators defer spectrum payments and network builds when cash flow tightens, and América Móvil is exposed to Brazilian weakness it expects to recover only in the second half. A deferral of a few hundred million dollars into 2027 is an ordinary corporate decision, not a crisis, and it is the realistic path to a miss.

— 3 · Mexico had no lock at all

The series had covered Brazil, and nothing else in Latin America.

P-250 brought Petrobras and Brazil into the series a tranche ago. Mexico, the region's second-largest economy, still had nothing. América Móvil is a reasonable place to start: it operates across most of Latin America under the Claro brand, publishes quarterly against explicit capital expenditure guidance, and its results are a read on consumer telecom demand across the whole region rather than one country.

Locked on 2026-09-02 — scored against América Móvil's reported FY2026 capital expenditure.

RAOSCAFF locks P-262 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against capital expenditure as reported by América Móvil for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-09-02 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-02-16 — América Móvil S.A.B. de C.V. FY2026 results
Source
América Móvil S.A.B. de C.V. FY2026 results, CAPITAL EXPENDITURE in US dollars (americamovil.com investor relations)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2026 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE is USD 6.3bn or greater; NO if below. Capital expenditure as the company reports it against its own approximately USD 7bn guidance basis, in US dollars — NOT including spectrum payments or licence acquisitions if the company presents those separately from capex, NOT EBITDA (reported three ways in Q2 2026), NOT revenue, and NOT a single country operation.

Q2 EBITDA growth was published as 3.8%, 5.3% and 6.7% depending on basis. Capex is guided as one number and reported as one line, which is why it is what we locked.