91% probability Adyen's FY2026 net revenue growth reaches at least 18% at constant currency, against guidance of 21-23%. H1 net revenue was EUR 1.3bn, up 19% reported and 21% at constant currency, with EBITDA of EUR 642m at a 49% margin.
Adyen reported H1 2026 net revenue of EUR 1.3bn, up 19% year-on-year and up 21% on a constant-currency basis. EBITDA rose to EUR 642m at a 49% margin, or 50% excluding one-time transaction costs. Full-year 2026 guidance is for net revenue growth of 21-23% on a constant-currency basis. EBITDA margin is expected to land approximately 1 percentage point lower than 2025 due to dilution from the Talon.One and Orb acquisitions. Capital expenditure was raised to about 7% of net revenue for 2026, up from a historical level near 5%. Q1 2026 net revenue was EUR 620.8m, up 16%. Source: Adyen H1 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Adyen's reported net revenue growth for full-year 2026, at constant currency, is 18% or higher. Confidence 91%.
Guidance is 21-23% at constant currency. Our threshold sits three points below the floor of that range.
The series already carries Visa at P-239, and it would be easy to read this as a second bet on the same thing. It is not. Visa operates the card network and takes a fee on volume crossing it. Adyen is a payment service provider: it sits between the merchant and those networks, handling acquiring, gateway, risk and settlement, and it competes with Stripe and legacy acquirers rather than with Visa.
The economics differ accordingly. Visa's revenue is close to a function of nominal consumer spending and grows with it. Adyen's is a function of merchant wins and share of each merchant's volume, which is why it compounds in the high teens or better while the networks grow at low double digits. That also makes it more forecastable in one respect — enterprise merchant relationships are contracted and sticky — and less in another, because losing or winning a single large platform moves the number.
Two things in this guide deserve attention rather than applause. EBITDA margin is guided about a point lower than 2025 on acquisition dilution from Talon.One and Orb, and capital expenditure has been raised to roughly 7% of net revenue from a historical 5%. Neither touches the revenue line this brief locks, but both indicate a company spending into growth rather than harvesting it.
The residual 9% sits in the acceleration the guide implies. H1 grew 21% at constant currency and the full-year range is 21-23%, which requires the second half to hold or improve on the first.
Adyen guides at constant currency and reports both. In H1 the two differed by two percentage points. Against a threshold with a three-point buffer, that gap is large enough to decide the outcome on its own, so the criterion below names constant currency and excludes the reported figure.
This is the third lock in recent tranches turning on the same distinction, after P-253 on SAP and P-258 on Roche — where the two bases carried opposite signs. Naming the basis is not pedantry; it is the difference between a falsifiable claim and a coin flip resolved by whichever line the scorer opens.
RAOSCAFF locks P-266 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against net revenue growth at constant currency as reported by Adyen for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
H1 was +19% reported against +21% at constant currency. On a three-point buffer, the choice of basis alone could decide this.