93% probability Ferrari's FY2026 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least EUR 2.90bn. Guidance was raised to at least EUR 2.97bn at a 39% margin on a sustained trend in personalisations, with H1 revenue of EUR 3.79bn and an order book extending to the end of 2027.
Ferrari reported H1 2026 revenue of EUR 3.79bn, operating profit of EUR 1.15bn and net profit of EUR 876m. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to approximately EUR 7.60bn in net revenues (from ~EUR 7.50bn), adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 2.97bn at a margin of at least 39.0% (from >=EUR 2.93bn), adjusted operating profit of at least EUR 2.26bn at a margin of at least 29.5% (from >=EUR 2.22bn), and adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR 9.68. A sustained trend in personalisations was cited as the driver. Q1 2026 revenue was EUR 1.85bn with the order book extending to the end of 2027. Source: Ferrari N.V. Q2 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Ferrari's reported adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2026 is EUR 2.90bn or higher. Confidence 93%.
Guidance is already expressed as a floor — at least EUR 2.97bn — and was raised from at least EUR 2.93bn. Our threshold sits below both.
Most revenue forecasts are demand forecasts. Ferrari's largely is not. The order book runs to the end of 2027, which means the cars generating 2026 revenue were substantially spoken for before the year began, and the company manages volume deliberately downward relative to demand to protect scarcity.
That inverts the usual risk. The question is not whether buyers appear; it is whether Ferrari builds and delivers on schedule, and what mix it delivers. Which is why the driver management actually cited for the raise is personalisations — bespoke options carrying very high incremental margin. The same number of cars generating more revenue each is a margin story, not a volume story, and it is the most reliable lever this company has.
The residual 7% is production and tariffs. A supply interruption or a shift in trade treatment of European vehicles into the US would hit deliveries rather than orders. Note also that Ferrari's guidance is stated as a floor rather than a range, which is a stronger form of commitment than most companies offer and which the threshold below sits underneath.
Ferrari guides approximately EUR 7.60bn of net revenues, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 2.97bn, adjusted operating profit of at least EUR 2.26bn, and adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR 9.68. A criterion that said only "earnings" would be choosing silently between two of those, which differ by roughly EUR 700m.
The scoring line names adjusted EBITDA and excludes the other three explicitly, including the margin percentages that accompany them. This is the same discipline applied at P-259 on Canadian National's three EPS figures and P-263 on Ericsson's two gross margins.
RAOSCAFF locks P-267 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against adjusted EBITDA as reported by Ferrari N.V. for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
Guidance is stated as a floor, not a range, and was raised from >=EUR 2.93bn to >=EUR 2.97bn. Our threshold sits below the pre-raise floor.