92% probability Woodside Energy produces at least 170 MMboe in 2026. Guidance of 174-185 MMboe was reaffirmed, H1 delivered 86.5 MMboe, and Scarborough is 98% complete with its first LNG cargo due in Q4 2026.
Woodside Energy reaffirmed full-year 2026 production guidance of 174-185 MMboe with capital expenditure guidance unchanged at USD 4.0-4.5bn. H1 2026 operating revenue was USD 7,446m, up 13% on H1 2025, with production of 478 Mboe/d (86.5 MMboe) and unit production costs of USD 8.8/boe. Free cash flow rose more than 150% year on year. Scarborough is 98% complete with first LNG cargo expected Q4 2026; Trion is 64% complete with first oil in 2028; Louisiana LNG is 28% complete with first LNG in 2029. NOTE: one source separately cites 'Woodside's share of production in H1 2026 was 14.0 MMboe, a 7% decrease', which cannot describe the same quantity as the 86.5 MMboe group figure; this lock does not rely on resolving that. Source: Woodside Energy half-year report for the period ended 30 June 2026.
We lock a binary: Woodside Energy's reported group production for full-year 2026 is 170 MMboe or higher. Confidence 92%.
Guidance of 174-185 MMboe was reaffirmed at the half. H1 delivered 86.5 MMboe, so the threshold asks the second half for 83.5 MMboe — slightly less than the first half produced.
Woodside's H1 2026 production is reported as 478 Mboe/d, which is 86.5 MMboe over the half, and that figure is consistent with a full-year guidance range of 174-185 MMboe. Separately, one source states that Woodside's share of production in H1 2026 was 14.0 MMboe, a 7% decrease. Those two numbers cannot be describing the same quantity — the second is presumably a particular equity share or a single asset rather than group output.
We did not adjudicate between them, and this lock does not require it. The criterion names GROUP production measured on the same basis as the 174-185 MMboe guidance, and the threshold sits far enough below that range that the discrepancy cannot decide the outcome either way. This follows the rule established at P-226, P-232 and P-258: build the claim on the quantity the sources agree about, disclose the conflict, and never quietly pick a side.
On the substance, production volume for an LNG producer is a plant-availability question over a single year rather than a demand question. Scarborough at 98% complete with first cargo due in Q4 2026 adds to the second half rather than subtracting from it. The residual 8% is cyclone season — H1 already absorbed an impact from Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, and the Australian North West Shelf cyclone window runs through the summer — plus unplanned turnaround extension.
RAOSCAFF locks P-269 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against group production as reported by Woodside Energy for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
The threshold asks H2 for slightly LESS than H1 produced, with Scarborough's first cargo due inside the period. Cyclone season is the disclosed risk.