~0.80 probability the US trade-weighted average applied import-tariff rate stays ≥10% at Dec 31 2026. Current rate ~11.7%. The resolution metric is explicit: Tax Foundation tracker, cross-checked vs Federal Register/USTR.
Tax Foundation tariff tracker (taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs/), Jun 2026. 10% baseline floor under Sec 301 replacement plan; ~60 partners already at 10–12.5%. The call locks ≥10% under any legal authority.
We lock a binary claim: the US trade-weighted average applied import-tariff rate (as measured by the Tax Foundation tariff tracker) is ≥10% on December 31 2026, under any legal authority. Confidence 0.80. The current reading is ~11.7% — 170bp above the threshold.
The Tax Foundation tariff tracker shows the trade-weighted average at ~11.7% as of Jun 2026, anchored on a planned Sec 301 replacement: ~60 partners at 10% (14) or 12.5% (46). The key risk is the Sec 122 tariff floor, which sunsets Jul 24 2026; the administration's plan swaps it to Sec 301 authority to maintain the floor. We use the Tax Foundation tracker as the resolution source (cross-checked vs Federal Register and USTR notices) and score ≥10% under any legal authority — eliminating the Sec 122-vs-Sec 301 definitional trap.
RAOSCAFF locks P-27 on 2026-06-21. The resolution metric (Tax Foundation tracker, cross-checked vs Federal Register) is pre-committed so there is no ambiguity about which figure to read.
Resolution metric is pre-committed — no ambiguity about the denominator or authority basis.