91% probability Bank Central Asia's FY2026 consolidated net profit reaches at least IDR 56 trillion. H1 delivered IDR 29.5 trillion, loans passed IDR 1,000 trillion for the first time, and low-cost CASA deposits fund 84.3% of the balance sheet.
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk reported H1 2026 net profit of IDR 29.5 trillion, up 1.79% year-on-year from IDR 29.02 trillion. Third-party funds reached IDR 1,284 trillion, up 7.9%, with low-cost current account and savings account funds accounting for 84.3% of the total. Non-interest income rose 11% year-on-year to IDR 13.2 trillion. Loans grew 8% year-on-year and passed IDR 1,000 trillion for the first time in the company's history. NOTE: the H1 loan book is reported as IDR 1,036 trillion in one source and IDR 1,082 trillion in another; this lock does not rely on resolving that discrepancy. Source: Bank Central Asia H1 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Bank Central Asia's reported consolidated net profit for full-year 2026 is IDR 56 trillion or higher. Confidence 91%.
H1 delivered IDR 29.5 trillion. Simply repeating the first half would produce IDR 59 trillion, so the threshold allows the second half to come in about 5% weaker than the first.
Bank profitability is mostly a funding-cost story, and BCA's is unusual anywhere in the world: 84.3% of its IDR 1,284 trillion deposit base sits in current accounts and savings, which pay close to nothing. That gives it a structural cost advantage over rivals funded by term deposits, and it is why the bank remains highly profitable through Indonesian rate cycles that compress everyone else.
The half itself was steady rather than spectacular — net profit up 1.79%, which is close to flat in real terms. But loans grew 8% and passed IDR 1,000 trillion for the first time, deposits grew 7.9%, and non-interest income grew 11%. That mix is a bank growing its balance sheet while its margin compresses, which is the normal pattern in a falling-rate environment and is precisely what the low-cost deposit base is designed to absorb.
The residual 9% is Indonesian macro and credit quality. A rupiah shock, a sharp policy-rate move, or deterioration in the corporate loan book would all reach the profit line, and Indonesia is more exposed to commodity-cycle swings than the other banking locks in this series.
One source puts BCA's H1 2026 loan book at IDR 1,036 trillion, another at IDR 1,082 trillion — a gap of IDR 46 trillion, larger than the bank's entire annual profit. They cannot both describe the same quantity on the same basis; the difference is presumably bank-only versus consolidated, or a different date.
We did not adjudicate. Instead this brief locks NET PROFIT, on which every source agrees at IDR 29.5 trillion for the half, and the loan figure appears in the evidence only as context. This is the same rule applied at P-226 on China's M2, P-232 on Dr Reddy's, P-258 on Roche and P-269 on Woodside: identify the quantity the sources agree about, build the falsifiable claim on that one, and disclose the conflict rather than quietly picking a side.
RAOSCAFF locks P-272 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against consolidated net profit as reported by PT Bank Central Asia Tbk for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
The threshold allows H2 to come in about 5% below H1. Sources conflict on the loan book by IDR 46tn, so the lock is on profit, where they agree.