92% probability LSEG's FY2026 organic revenue growth reaches at least 6.0% at constant currency. Guidance was raised to 7.0-7.5% after H1 grew 8.4% organically. The company also guides subscription growth near 6.5%, which sits between our threshold and the headline range.
LSEG reported H1 2026 total income excluding recoveries of GBP 4,799m, representing 8.4% organic constant-currency growth and accelerating from 6.3% in H2 2025. Growth was broad-based: Data & Analytics +5.1%, FTSE Russell +9.1%, Risk Intelligence +9.7%, Markets +11.9%. Adjusted EPS grew 17.2% at actual rates to 244.9p and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 52.7% from 49.5% in H1 2025. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to organic revenue growth of 7.0-7.5% from a prior 6.5-7.5%, with EBITDA margin improvement lifted to about 100 basis points in constant currency from a prior 80-100. Subscription revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 6.7% in the second half for about 6.5% for the full year. Equity free cash flow of at least GBP 2.7bn is expected. Source: LSEG H1 2026 interim results, 30 July 2026.
We lock a binary: LSEG's reported organic revenue growth for full-year 2026, at constant currency, is 6.0% or higher. Confidence 92%.
Guidance was raised to 7.0-7.5% and H1 delivered 8.4%. Our threshold sits a full point below the floor of the raised range.
This is the sharpest reason in the tranche to name a metric precisely. LSEG guides two different growth rates for the same year: total organic revenue growth at 7.0-7.5%, and subscription revenue growth at about 6.5% for the full year, accelerating to 6.7% in the second half.
Our threshold of 6.0% sits below both — but the subscription figure sits between our floor and the headline range. If the full-year subscription number came in at, say, 6.2% while total organic growth fell to 5.8%, a criterion that failed to specify which rate it meant could be scored as a HIT against a line the forecast was never about. The lock would clear the bar for the wrong reason, which is a worse outcome than a clean miss.
The criterion below names total organic constant-currency revenue growth and excludes the subscription measure explicitly, along with the adjusted EPS growth of 17.2% that LSEG also reports and which is far higher than either.
The name says London Stock Exchange, and trading is now a minority of the business. LSEG's growth in H1 came from Data & Analytics at 5.1%, FTSE Russell at 9.1%, Risk Intelligence at 9.7% and Markets at 11.9% — a data and index company with an exchange attached, largely subscription-funded, which is why it grows steadily rather than with market volatility.
That subscription base is what makes this forecastable. Recurring contracted revenue does not swing on a quarter's trading volumes, and the guidance was raised at the half rather than trimmed, with the EBITDA margin improvement target also lifted. The residual 8% is the Data & Analytics segment, the largest and slowest at 5.1%, where competitive pressure from Bloomberg and from cheaper data alternatives is real and persistent.
RAOSCAFF locks P-273 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against organic revenue growth at constant currency as reported by London Stock Exchange Group for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
Subscription growth is guided at ~6.5% against our 6.0% floor. Scoring the wrong line could produce a HIT for the wrong reason, which is worse than a clean miss.