The aftermarket is the business — EUR 6.2bn, at 92%.

We lock a binary: Safran's reported recurring operating income for full-year 2026 is EUR 6.2bn or higher. Confidence 92%.

Guidance was raised to about EUR 6.5bn. H1 already delivered EUR 3,237m, so the threshold asks the second half for roughly EUR 2.96bn — slightly less than the first half produced.

Commercial jet engines are famously sold at or below cost, and the manufacturer earns its return over decades of spare parts and shop visits. Safran's H1 shows exactly that: recurring operating income grew 29% against revenue growth of 19%, because the mix tilted toward high-margin aftermarket work rather than new engine deliveries.

That structure is what makes the profit line predictable in a way an order book is not. The installed base of CFM56 and LEAP engines is already flying, the shop-visit schedule is largely determined by flight hours already accumulated, and airlines cannot defer mandatory maintenance the way they can defer a fleet order. Higher LEAP deliveries and robust defence activity add to it rather than being the foundation.

The residual 8% is supply chain and, specifically, LEAP ramp execution. Engine production has been the constraint on the whole narrowbody industry for several years, and a parts shortage that slows shop visits would hit the aftermarket line as directly as it hits deliveries.

Safran reports adjusted revenue and recurring operating income, both of which differ from the statutory IFRS lines — the adjustments principally relate to purchase price allocation from the Sagem-Snecma combination and to foreign exchange hedging. The EUR 6.5bn guidance is issued on the recurring basis.

The criterion below names recurring operating income and excludes statutory operating income, net income and revenue. This is the same discipline applied at P-249 on Siemens' pre-PPA EPS and P-270 on BASF's EBITDA before special items.