90% probability adidas' FY2026 operating profit reaches at least EUR 2.10bn against guidance of about EUR 2.3bn. Q2 revenue hit a record EUR 6.7bn, up 14% currency-neutral, but operating profit rose only 5% because the company spent EUR 212m more on World Cup marketing.
adidas reported record Q2 2026 revenue of EUR 6.7bn, up 13% year-on-year and up 14% in currency-neutral terms. Operating profit rose 5% to EUR 574m, held back by EUR 212m of additional marketing spend tied to the FIFA World Cup. Direct-to-consumer revenue grew 25%, with e-commerce up 27% and own retail up 23%; the performance business, led by football and running, grew 39% currency-neutral. Full-year 2026 guidance was upgraded to currency-neutral revenue growth of 9-10%, with operating profit expected at around EUR 2.3bn, despite tariff and sourcing cost pressures. Source: adidas Q2 2026 results.
We lock a binary: adidas' reported operating profit for full-year 2026 is EUR 2.10bn or higher. Confidence 90%.
Guidance is about EUR 2.3bn. Our threshold sits roughly 9% below that, a wider buffer than most locks in this series, and the World Cup is the reason.
The Q2 numbers look contradictory until you see the marketing line. Record revenue of EUR 6.7bn, currency-neutral growth of 14%, direct-to-consumer up 25%, the performance business up 39% — and operating profit up only 5%, to EUR 574m, because adidas spent EUR 212m more on marketing tied to the FIFA World Cup.
That is a deliberate choice rather than a problem, and it is also why the profit line deserves a wider buffer than the revenue line would. Tournament marketing is front-loaded relative to the sales it generates, the spend is committed in advance and cannot be trimmed if trading softens, and the payoff shows up in later periods. Guidance of about EUR 2.3bn already absorbs this, but a company carrying EUR 200m-plus of discretionary-in-principle-but-contracted-in-practice spend has less room to protect a profit number than one that does not.
Two further pressures were named by the company itself: tariffs and sourcing costs. Sportswear is among the most exposed sectors to trade measures because production is concentrated in Vietnam, Indonesia and China, and adidas cannot reprice instantly into a competitive market.
What supports the lock is the quality of the growth underneath. Direct-to-consumer at 25% carries far better margin than wholesale, and football and running growing 39% currency-neutral is the core franchise working rather than a discount-driven volume push.
adidas guides revenue growth of 9-10% on a currency-neutral basis and operating profit as an absolute figure of about EUR 2.3bn. Those are different kinds of target, and only one of them carries a basis question.
This brief locks the euro figure precisely because it does not need a currency qualifier: an absolute operating profit in euros is what it is, whatever the dollar did. Where a company offers both a rate on an adjusted basis and an absolute number, the absolute number is usually the cleaner thing to score — a lesson this series learned the hard way at P-258, where Roche's growth carried opposite signs on two bases for the same six months.
RAOSCAFF locks P-275 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against operating profit as reported by adidas AG for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
The buffer is ~9%, wider than usual, because EUR 212m of extra World Cup marketing in one quarter is committed spend that cannot be trimmed if trading softens.