91% probability DSV's FY2026 EBIT before special items reaches at least DKK 22.5bn. Guidance was narrowed upward to DKK 23.5-25.5bn after Q2 EBIT before special items rose 32.5% to DKK 6.3bn, the strongest quarter since the Schenker integration began.
DSV reported Q2 2026 revenue up 23.4% year-on-year to DKK 76,688m, with gross profit up 17.5% to DKK 20,277m and EBIT before special items up 32.5% to DKK 6,255m — the strongest quarterly result since COVID and since the start of the Schenker integration. Q2 gross margin was 26.4%, operating margin 8.2% and the conversion ratio 30.8%. Full-year 2026 EBIT before special items guidance was narrowed to DKK 23.5-25.5bn from DKK 23.0-25.5bn previously. At least DKK 4bn of incremental Schenker synergies are expected in 2026, with annual synergies of DKK 9bn targeted by 2027. Source: DSV A/S interim financial report H1 2026, 22 July 2026.
We lock a binary: DSV's reported EBIT before special items for full-year 2026 is DKK 22.5bn or higher. Confidence 91%.
Guidance was narrowed to DKK 23.5-25.5bn, raising the floor from DKK 23.0bn. Our threshold sits below both the new floor and the superseded one.
The series already carries Maersk at P-237, and putting DSV alongside it could look like doubling down on shipping. It is closer to the opposite. Maersk owns vessels and sells capacity; DSV owns almost no ships or planes and buys that capacity to resell to shippers, adding routing, customs and warehousing.
That inverts the exposure. A spike in ocean freight rates is revenue for the carrier and cost for the forwarder, which must either absorb the increase or pass it on with a lag. DSV's gross profit — what it keeps after paying carriers — is the number that matters, and it grew 17.5% in Q2 while revenue grew 23.4%, exactly the pattern of a forwarder passing through higher purchased transport at a thinner percentage margin but a larger absolute one.
So the two locks are not the same bet, and if both resolve HIT that tells you the freight market was healthy enough for capacity owners and stable enough for intermediaries at the same time, which is a genuinely informative combination.
The dominant variable here is not freight at all, though — it is Schenker. DSV is integrating one of the largest acquisitions in the sector's history, expects at least DKK 4bn of incremental synergies in 2026 and targets DKK 9bn annually by 2027. Q2's 32.5% EBIT growth and a 30.8% conversion ratio say the integration is delivering. The residual 9% is that integrations of this size routinely slip, and a large one-off charge would land in the special items the guided measure excludes but could accompany operational disruption that does not.
RAOSCAFF locks P-276 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against EBIT before special items as reported by DSV A/S for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
Guidance was narrowed by RAISING the floor from DKK 23.0bn to DKK 23.5bn. Our threshold sits below the pre-narrowing floor.