RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-279
Prediction Series · P-279

Plus 22% or plus 8%? The gap is a power-plant sale.

91% probability Iberdrola's FY2026 adjusted net profit growth reaches at least 5%, against guidance of comfortably above 8%. Reported H1 net profit rose 22% to EUR 4.34bn; adjusted net profit rose 8%. The difference is capital gains on Mexican thermal plants, and guidance is on the adjusted line.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored floor, regulated utility networks Locked · 2026-09-02 · before the FY2026 result Resolves · ~2027-02-24 · Iberdrola FY2026 results (iberdrola.com) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 ADJUSTED net profit growth >= 5% yes/no
Iberdrola FY2026 adjusted net profit growth · our locked floor
5%
adjusted net profit growth · vs comfortably above 8% guided

Iberdrola reported H1 2026 net profit of EUR 4.34bn, up 22%, driven by regulated electricity network earnings and higher investment. Adjusted net profit, which EXCLUDES capital gains from the sale of thermal power plants in Mexico, grew 8%, or 14% excluding exchange-rate effects. Management reaffirmed guidance for adjusted net profit growth comfortably above 8% for full-year 2026. H1 investments rose 25% to EUR 7bn with more than 70% directed at the UK, US and Brazil, and the regulated asset base increased 11% to EUR 55bn. An additional 2,100 MW is expected to be commissioned by December, and 83% of EBITDA comes from A-rated countries. Source: Iberdrola H1 2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Iberdrola's FY2026 adjusted net profit growth is at least 5% — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: Iberdrola's reported adjusted net profit growth for full-year 2026 is 5% or higher. Confidence 91%.

Guidance is for growth comfortably above 8%. Our threshold sits three points below that.

— 2 · The widest reported-versus-adjusted gap we have locked against

Reported +22%. Adjusted +8%. Fourteen points of Mexican power plants.

Iberdrola's H1 headline is a 22% rise in net profit to EUR 4.34bn. The adjusted figure, which strips out capital gains on the sale of thermal power plants in Mexico, rose 8%. That is a fourteen-point gap between two numbers describing the same six months, and it is the widest such divergence this series has locked against.

Guidance is issued on the adjusted line, so the adjusted line is what the criterion scores. A threshold of 5% is a real test against adjusted growth and a formality against reported growth — which is precisely why leaving the basis unstated would have made this unfalsifiable in the direction that flatters us.

There is a third figure worth noting for completeness: adjusted net profit grew 14% excluding exchange-rate effects. So the same half produced +22%, +8% and +14% depending on basis. The criterion names the adjusted figure as reported, without further currency restatement.

The business underneath is unusually low-risk for a utility: 83% of EBITDA from A-rated countries, a regulated asset base up 11% to EUR 55bn, and more than 70% of a EUR 7bn half-year investment programme directed at UK, US and Brazilian networks. Regulated network earnings are set by regulators rather than power prices, which is what makes a profit-growth lock viable here at all. The residual 9% is currency translation on Brazilian and US earnings, and adverse regulatory determinations.

Locked on 2026-09-02 — scored against Iberdrola's reported FY2026 adjusted net profit growth.

RAOSCAFF locks P-279 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against adjusted net profit growth as reported by Iberdrola for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-09-02 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-02-24 — Iberdrola S.A. FY2026 full-year results
Source
Iberdrola S.A. FY2026 results, ADJUSTED NET PROFIT growth (iberdrola.com shareholders and investors)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2026 ADJUSTED net profit growth is 5.0% or greater; NO if below. The ADJUSTED measure the guidance is issued on, which excludes capital gains such as the Mexican thermal plant disposals — explicitly NOT reported net profit growth (which was 22% in H1 2026 against adjusted 8%), NOT adjusted growth excluding exchange-rate effects (a third figure, 14% in H1), NOT EBITDA, and NOT the regulated asset base.

One half-year produced +22% reported, +8% adjusted and +14% adjusted ex-FX. Leaving the basis unstated would have made this unfalsifiable in the direction that flatters us.