90% probability Strategy (MSTR) misses its 1,000,000 BTC target at year-end 2026. Current holdings: 846,842 BTC. Needed: +153,158 in ~6.5 months. Recent pace: ~1.5–3k/mo and net-selling for dividends. The math closes the case.
bitbo.io / bitcointreasuries.net as of 2026-06-15. Needed: +153,158 BTC in ~6.5 months = ~23.6k BTC/mo. Recent acquisition pace: ~1.5–3k/mo. Strategy has also begun net-selling BTC to fund dividends.
We lock a binary claim: Strategy (NYSE: MSTR) holds fewer than 1,000,000 BTC as of December 31 2026, missing its publicly stated 1M-coin target. Confidence 0.90.
As of June 15 2026, Strategy holds 846,842 BTC (bitbo.io / bitcointreasuries.net). The 1M-coin target requires +153,158 BTC in ~6.5 months — a pace of ~23.6k BTC/mo. Strategy's recent acquisition rate is ~1.5–3k BTC/mo, and the firm has begun net-selling BTC to fund its preferred-share dividend obligations. Even a dramatic acceleration to 10k/mo falls ~88k short. Resolves against Strategy's year-end 8-K holdings disclosure (SEC EDGAR); if the 8-K is filed in January 2027, we use the as-of-Dec-31 figure disclosed within it.
RAOSCAFF locks P-28 on 2026-06-21. Framed as a calibrated probability, not a company critique. Resolves against the reported BTC holding in Strategy's year-end 8-K.
If Strategy's 8-K lags into January, we score against the as-of-Dec-31 figure disclosed in that filing.