RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-282
Prediction Series · P-282

Guidance raised three times — so we locked the first floor.

93% probability UniCredit's FY2026 net profit reaches at least EUR 10.5bn. Guidance has been lifted repeatedly this year, from above EUR 10bn to at least EUR 11bn in May and to well above EUR 11bn after a record H1 of EUR 6.1bn at a 24% return on tangible equity.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored floor, banking Locked · 2026-09-02 · before the FY2026 result Resolves · ~2027-02-09 · UniCredit FY2026 results (unicreditgroup.eu) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 NET PROFIT >= EUR 10.5bn yes/no
UniCredit FY2026 net profit · our locked floor
EUR 10.5bn
full-year net profit · vs well above EUR 11bn guided

UniCredit reported H1 2026 net profit of EUR 6.1bn, up 24% versus the prior year adjusted, at a return on tangible equity of 24% — its best half-year in history. Following those results the bank improved full-year 2026 net profit guidance to well above EUR 11bn, or approximately EUR 11.5bn excluding integration costs. Management had previously raised full-year 2026 guidance to at least EUR 11bn in May 2026, up from a prior target of above EUR 10bn. Source: UniCredit H1 2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

UniCredit's FY2026 net profit is at least EUR 10.5bn — P = 0.93.

We lock a binary: UniCredit's reported net profit for full-year 2026 is EUR 10.5bn or higher. Confidence 93%.

H1 delivered EUR 6.1bn. The threshold asks the second half for EUR 4.4bn — about 28% less than the first half produced.

— 2 · A guide raised three times in one year

Above EUR 10bn, then at least EUR 11bn, then well above EUR 11bn. We anchored near the first.

UniCredit has moved its 2026 net profit target three times: originally above EUR 10bn, raised to at least EUR 11bn in May, and lifted again to well above EUR 11bn after the half-year, with roughly EUR 11.5bn cited excluding integration costs. Each raise followed delivery rather than preceding it, which is the good version of this pattern.

It is also exactly the situation the series' anchoring rule was written for. A target revised upward three times inside twelve months carries a great deal of management confidence and comparatively little elapsed proof of the final figure. Anchoring at EUR 10.5bn — just above the original target and well below the current one — tests whether the bank delivers a strong year without requiring the most recent upgrade to hold in full.

The residual 7% is not really about earnings power; a 24% return on tangible equity leaves considerable room. It is about integration costs from the Commerzbank transaction, which is precisely why the guidance is quoted two ways — well above EUR 11bn on a headline basis and about EUR 11.5bn excluding those costs. The criterion below scores reported net profit, integration costs included, which is the more demanding of the two readings.

Locked on 2026-09-02 — scored against UniCredit's reported FY2026 net profit.

RAOSCAFF locks P-282 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against net profit as reported by UniCredit for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-09-02 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-02-09 — UniCredit S.p.A. FY2026 results
Source
UniCredit S.p.A. FY2026 results, NET PROFIT in euros (unicreditgroup.eu investors)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2026 NET PROFIT is EUR 10.5bn or greater; NO if below. Reported net profit INCLUDING integration costs — NOT net profit excluding integration costs, which the company quotes separately at approximately EUR 11.5bn, NOT net operating profit, NOT return on tangible equity, and NOT a stated/adjusted figure if presented alongside the reported one. Where both are shown, the reported statutory net profit governs.

The threshold sits just above the original 'above EUR 10bn' target and well below the thrice-raised current one. It also scores the more demanding of the two guidance readings.