91% probability Givaudan's FY2026 like-for-like sales growth reaches at least 2.0%. H1 like-for-like growth was 3.6% while reported sales in Swiss francs FELL 1.7%. Opposite signs for the same six months, which is why the criterion names the basis.
Givaudan reported H1 2026 group sales of CHF 3,799m, an increase of 3.6% on a like-for-like basis, while REPORTED sales decreased 1.7% in Swiss francs due to the continued strength of the currency. Fragrance & Beauty sales were CHF 2.01bn, up 6.5% like-for-like, with Fine Fragrance up 7.3% and Consumer Products up 9.2%; Taste & Wellbeing grew 0.5% like-for-like. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.3%, down from 25.2%, and free cash flow was negative CHF 119m as working capital and investment rose. Management reiterated a 2030 strategy targeting 4-6% AVERAGE like-for-like sales growth and adjusted free cash flow above 12% of sales across 2026-2030, and expects low single-digit inflation in H2. Source: Givaudan 2026 half-year results.
We lock a binary: Givaudan's reported like-for-like sales growth for full-year 2026 is 2.0% or higher. Confidence 91%.
H1 delivered 3.6% like-for-like. The threshold allows the full year to come in well below the half already banked.
Givaudan reiterated a target of 4-6% average like-for-like sales growth with adjusted free cash flow above 12% of sales — but those figures belong to a 2030 strategy covering 2026 to 2030, and they are averages across that period. A five-year average is not a commitment about any individual year within it, and a company can undershoot in 2026 while remaining entirely on plan.
Presenting 4-6% as if it were full-year 2026 guidance would have made this lock look guidance-anchored when it is not. The threshold is instead anchored on delivered H1 performance of 3.6%, with headroom for a materially weaker second half, and the criterion is labelled accordingly.
The mix underneath is uneven and worth knowing. Fragrance & Beauty grew 6.5% like-for-like, with Fine Fragrance at 7.3% and Consumer Products at 9.2%. Taste & Wellbeing grew 0.5% — essentially flat, and roughly half the business. The group number is one strong division carrying one weak one, which is a thinner base than a uniform 3.6% would suggest and is the main reason this sits at 0.91 rather than higher. Margin also compressed, from 25.2% to 24.3%, and free cash flow was negative CHF 119m.
Givaudan's H1 sales rose 3.6% like-for-like and fell 1.7% as reported in Swiss francs. That is the same hazard that made P-258 on Roche the sharpest metric case in the series — a strong franc turning growth into decline on the reported line while the underlying business grew.
A criterion saying only "sales growth of at least 2%" would resolve HIT or MISS purely on which line the scorer opened. The criterion below names like-for-like and excludes the reported Swiss franc figure explicitly.
RAOSCAFF locks P-283 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against like-for-like sales growth as reported by Givaudan for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
One division grew 6.5% and the other 0.5%. The group's 3.6% is a strong half carrying a flat half, which is a thinner base than the headline suggests.