91% probability Amadeus IT Group's FY2026 revenue reaches at least EUR 6.4bn. H1 revenue was EUR 3,334.9m, up 5.1% at constant currency, with adjusted EBIT of EUR 1,011.5m. Amadeus trimmed its full-year outlook on Middle East travel disruption, and this threshold is anchored on banked results instead.
Amadeus IT Group reported H1 2026 revenue of EUR 3,334.9m, up 5.1% at constant currency, with adjusted EBIT of EUR 1,011.5m, up 4.9% at constant currency. Free cash flow was EUR 472.2m, up 0.8%, and net financial debt was EUR 2,577.5m at 30 June 2026, equal to 1.0 times last-twelve-month EBITDA. Capital expenditure is projected at 10-12% of revenue. Management noted that the wider-than-typical full-year outlook range reflects uncertainty around geopolitical developments and their impact on travel flows, with the Middle East situation significantly affecting global air traffic from March; the company's diversified business provided resilience against volume impacts. Reporting indicates the 2026 outlook was trimmed. Source: Amadeus H1 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Amadeus IT Group's reported group revenue for full-year 2026 is EUR 6.4bn or higher. Confidence 91%.
H1 banked EUR 3,334.9m. The threshold asks the second half for roughly EUR 3.07bn — about 8% less than the first half delivered.
Reporting on this result indicates Amadeus trimmed its 2026 outlook, and management described a wider-than-typical range reflecting geopolitical uncertainty. We could not establish the revised range itself to the standard this series requires before setting a threshold against it.
That leaves two honest options: drop the candidate, as we did with Prosus in the previous tranche when we could not pin which fiscal year a target belonged to, or anchor on something we can verify. Here the second applies, because the H1 actuals are solid and specific — EUR 3,334.9m of revenue, EUR 1,011.5m of adjusted EBIT — and a threshold set below banked results does not need the forward range at all. The criterion is labelled level-anchored rather than guidance-anchored so that no reader mistakes it for a test against a company forecast.
The distinction from Prosus matters: there, the ambiguity went to the fundamental question of which year was being described, which no amount of care could work around. Here the ambiguity is confined to a forward range the lock simply does not depend on.
On substance, Amadeus is the reservation and distribution technology behind a large share of the world's airline and hotel bookings, charging per transaction. That makes it a levered play on travel volume, and the Middle East disruption from March hit air traffic directly. Against that, the business has diversified into hospitality and payments, which is what management credits for the resilience. The residual 9% is a further deterioration in travel flows in the second half.
RAOSCAFF locks P-284 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against group revenue as reported by Amadeus IT Group for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
The floor asks H2 for about 8% less than H1 delivered, and depends on no forward figure we could not check.