RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-285
Prediction Series · P-285

Volume and price in balance — 2.5% like-for-like, at 92%.

92% probability Danone's FY2026 like-for-like sales growth reaches at least 2.5%. Guidance of +3% to +5% was confirmed, H1 delivered 3.5% and Q2 accelerated to 4.2%, with growth split almost evenly between volume/mix and price.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored floor, dairy and specialised nutrition Locked · 2026-09-02 · before the FY2026 result Resolves · ~2027-02-24 · Danone FY2026 results (danone.com) Scored · binary: reported FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth >= 2.5% yes/no
Danone FY2026 like-for-like sales growth · our locked floor
2.5%
like-for-like sales growth · vs +3% to +5% guided

Danone reported H1 2026 sales of EUR 13,936m, up 3.5% like-for-like, comprising +1.7% from volume/mix and +1.8% from price. Like-for-like growth accelerated to 4.2% in Q2 from 2.7% in Q1, with broad-based momentum across all geographic regions and product categories. Recurring operating margin improved 12 basis points to 13.3%, recurring EPS was EUR 1.92 (+0.9%) and free cash flow was EUR 0.9bn. Full-year 2026 guidance was confirmed in line with the mid-term ambition: like-for-like sales growth between +3% and +5%, with recurring operating income growing faster than sales. Source: Danone H1 2026 results, 29 July 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Danone's FY2026 like-for-like sales growth is at least 2.5% — P = 0.92.

We lock a binary: Danone's reported like-for-like sales growth for full-year 2026 is 2.5% or higher. Confidence 92%.

Guidance is +3% to +5% and was confirmed rather than trimmed. H1 delivered 3.5%, with Q2 accelerating to 4.2%. Our threshold sits half a point below the floor of the guided range.

— 2 · The composition is the quality signal

Growth split 1.7% volume and 1.8% price. That balance is rarer than the headline.

Consumer goods companies spent several years reporting growth built almost entirely on price, which flatters a top line while quietly shrinking the business in units. Danone's H1 is close to an even split: 1.7 points of volume and mix against 1.8 points of price.

That matters more than the 3.5% itself. Volume growth means people are buying more product, which is repeatable; price growth eventually meets consumer resistance. Compare P-248 on Nestlé in this series, where H1 growth was pricing-led with only 1.5 points of volume, and P-252 on Unilever, where it was volume-led at 4.2 points. Danone sits between them, and the three together are becoming a useful cross-section of how differently the same sector is growing.

Acceleration also runs the right way — Q1 at 2.7% to Q2 at 4.2%, described as broad-based across regions and categories rather than driven by one market. The residual 8% is China infant nutrition, historically Danone's most volatile exposure, and a second-half pricing rollover if input costs ease and competitors pass it through.

Locked on 2026-09-02 — scored against Danone's reported FY2026 like-for-like sales growth.

RAOSCAFF locks P-285 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against like-for-like sales growth as reported by Danone for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.

Locked
2026-09-02 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-02-24 — Danone S.A. FY2026 full-year results
Source
Danone S.A. FY2026 results, LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth (danone.com investors)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2026 LIKE-FOR-LIKE sales growth is 2.5% or greater; NO if below. Like-for-like growth as Danone defines it — NOT reported sales growth in euros, NOT the volume/mix component alone (1.7% in H1), NOT the price component alone (1.8% in H1), NOT recurring operating income growth (guided separately as faster than sales), and NOT a single category or region.

H1 growth was 1.7 points volume and 1.8 points price — a balance that is rarer than the headline rate and more repeatable than pricing alone.