RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-289
Prediction Series · P-289

Reported +3%, organic +4%, currency −3% — so we locked the margin.

91% probability ASSA ABLOY's Q3 2026 operating margin reaches at least 16.0%. Q2 hit a record 17.0%, up 80 basis points, on organic growth of 4% split evenly between price and volume — while reported sales grew just 3% after a 3-point currency headwind.

Type · Prediction Lock · level-anchored margin floor, access solutions Locked · 2026-09-02 · before the Q3 2026 result Resolves · ~2026-10-23 · ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 report (assaabloy.com) Scored · binary: reported Q3 2026 OPERATING MARGIN >= 16.0% yes/no
ASSA ABLOY Q3 2026 operating margin · our locked floor
16.0%
quarterly operating margin · vs a record 17.0% in Q2 2026

ASSA ABLOY reported Q2 2026 sales of SEK 39.3bn, up 3% year-on-year. Organic sales growth was 4%, comprising 2% from price and 2% from volume; acquisitions added 2% and currency was a headwind of −3%. The operating margin expanded 80 basis points to 17.0%, a record-high adjusted operating margin for the quarter, driven by strong organic operating leverage. Source: ASSA ABLOY quarterly report Q2 2026, 17 July 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

ASSA ABLOY's Q3 2026 operating margin is at least 16.0% — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: ASSA ABLOY's reported operating margin for Q3 2026 is 16.0% or higher. Confidence 91%.

Q2 delivered a record 17.0%. The threshold allows a full point of margin compression from that peak.

— 2 · Four different growth numbers, so we locked something that has only one

Reported 3%. Organic 4%. Acquisitions +2. Currency −3. Margin is a single figure.

ASSA ABLOY's Q2 sales line decomposes into four moving parts: 3% reported growth, made of 4% organic (itself 2% price and 2% volume), plus 2% from acquisitions, less 3% from currency. A sales-growth lock would have needed to specify which of those it meant, and a reader would have had to hold all four in mind to check it.

The operating margin has no such split. It is one number, reported once, and it is also the better measure of what this company is actually doing — expanding profitability through operating leverage rather than buying growth. That is why the lock sits on margin rather than on any of the four sales figures.

There is no numeric guidance to anchor against; ASSA ABLOY does not publish forward targets of that kind, so this is level-anchored on the delivered quarter and labelled accordingly. Allowing a full point of compression from a record is a deliberate buffer: Q2 was described as a record high, and records are by definition the hardest comparison to repeat.

The residual 9% is the construction cycle, which drives the underlying demand for locks, doors and access control, and the acquisition programme — ASSA ABLOY buys steadily, and newly acquired businesses typically dilute margin before they are integrated.

Locked on 2026-09-02 — scored against ASSA ABLOY's reported Q3 2026 operating margin.

RAOSCAFF locks P-289 on 2026-09-02, before the Q3 report. Scored against the operating margin as reported by ASSA ABLOY for the three months to 30 September 2026.

Locked
2026-09-02 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2026-10-23 — ASSA ABLOY AB quarterly report Q3 2026
Source
ASSA ABLOY AB Q3 2026 report, OPERATING MARGIN (assaabloy.com investors)
Scored by
Binary: YES if the reported Q3 2026 OPERATING MARGIN is 16.0% or greater; NO if below. The group operating margin as reported for the quarter — NOT organic sales growth (4% in Q2), NOT reported sales growth (3% in Q2), NOT the operating profit absolute figure, and NOT a single division. Where both an operating margin and an adjusted operating margin are presented, the adjusted figure the company headlines as a record governs. This threshold is LEVEL-ANCHORED on the delivered Q2 margin; ASSA ABLOY publishes no numeric forward guidance.

The sales line has four moving parts and the margin has one. That is why the lock is on margin.