92% probability Experian's FY2027 organic revenue growth reaches at least 5.0%, against maintained guidance of 6-8%. Q1 revenue grew 10% at actual rates, 8% at constant currency and 7% organically. The criterion names which one it scores.
Experian reported Q1 FY2027 revenue growth of 10% at actual exchange rates, 8% at constant currency and 7% organically, in line with expectations. North America delivered 7% organic revenue growth, Latin America 12% as fraud and consumer services momentum continued, and B2B organic revenue growth was 11%. The company maintained its full-year outlook: organic revenue growth of 6% to 8% for fiscal 2027, an inorganic contribution of about 1%, and organic constant-currency margin progression of around 50 basis points. Based on current rates, foreign exchange is expected to be a 1-2% tailwind for both revenue and benchmark EBIT. Source: Experian trading update, first quarter FY27.
We lock a binary: Experian's reported organic revenue growth for fiscal 2027 is 5.0% or higher. Confidence 92%.
Guidance is 6-8% and was maintained. Our threshold sits a point below the floor of that range.
Experian's Q1 disclosure is unusually clean about this, publishing all three figures side by side: revenue grew 10% at actual exchange rates, 8% at constant currency, and 7% organically. The differences are currency and acquisitions — the company expects foreign exchange to be a 1-2% tailwind this year and inorganic contribution of about 1%.
The full-year guidance of 6-8% is issued on the organic measure, so that is what the criterion scores. Against a 5% threshold the choice genuinely matters: an outcome around 5.5% organic with a 2% currency tailwind and 1% from acquisitions would print roughly 8.5% at actual rates, which would clear a loosely-worded threshold while the guided measure sat below it.
On substance, a credit bureau is close to an infrastructure business. Lenders cannot originate without a credit file, the data asset compounds because every new record makes the whole more valuable, and revenue is largely transactional against volumes that move with credit activity rather than with any one client. The growth mix is informative too: Latin America at 12% organic and B2B at 11% are carrying a North American consumer business at 7%.
The residual 8% is credit activity itself. A sharp contraction in lending volumes reduces bureau enquiries directly, and that is the one thing this business cannot hedge.
RAOSCAFF locks P-290 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2027 result. Scored against organic revenue growth as reported by Experian for the year to 31 March 2027.
5.5% organic plus a 2% FX tailwind plus 1% inorganic prints about 8.5% at actual rates. A loosely-worded threshold would clear on that while the guided measure sat below it.