91% probability Bayer's FY2026 sales reach at least EUR 43.0bn on the currency-adjusted basis guidance is issued on. H1 sales were EUR 24.277bn, up 3.3% adjusted for FX and portfolio, with EBITDA before special items up 6.6% to EUR 6.597bn.
Bayer reported Q2 2026 sales of EUR 10.872bn, up 2.2%, with EBITDA before special items of EUR 2.144bn, up 1.9%. For the first six months group sales rose 3.3% on an FX and portfolio-adjusted basis to EUR 24.277bn, and EBITDA before special items advanced 6.6% to EUR 6.597bn. Bayer affirmed its currency-adjusted group guidance for full-year 2026 on all metrics except net financial debt, which is now expected at EUR 29-30bn against a previous EUR 32-33bn. Sales for 2026 are guided at EUR 44.7-47bn and core EPS at EUR 4.10-4.70. The improved debt guidance reflects an agreement under which Apollo-managed funds take a minority non-controlling stake in a new entity holding Bayer's long-acting reversible contraceptives business for a EUR 3.0bn capital contribution. Source: Bayer Q2 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Bayer's reported sales for full-year 2026 are EUR 43.0bn or higher. Confidence 91%.
Guidance is EUR 44.7-47bn on a currency-adjusted basis and was affirmed. H1 banked EUR 24.277bn, so the threshold asks the second half for about EUR 18.7bn — well below what the first half produced.
Bayer's H1 of EUR 24.277bn against a full-year guide of EUR 44.7-47bn implies a materially smaller second half, which would look like deterioration in most businesses. In this one it is seasonality. Crop Science, Bayer's largest division, sells seeds and crop protection into Northern Hemisphere planting, which concentrates revenue in the first half. A threshold set by simply doubling H1 would have been badly wrong in the other direction.
The threshold therefore sits below the guidance floor rather than being derived from the half, at EUR 43.0bn against a guided EUR 44.7-47bn — about 3.8% of headroom on a guide the company affirmed rather than trimmed.
The guidance is issued currency-adjusted, and the criterion names that basis. Bayer also reports its underlying growth as FX and portfolio-adjusted — H1's 3.3% is on that basis — so this is a company where essentially every growth figure carries a qualifier, and an unqualified threshold would be ambiguous by construction.
The residual 9% is glyphosate litigation, which remains the single largest uncertainty attached to this company and which sits below the sales line but shapes everything around it, and agricultural commodity prices, which drive farmer spending on seed and crop protection directly.
RAOSCAFF locks P-291 on 2026-09-02, before the FY2026 result. Scored against group sales as reported by Bayer for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
H1 banked EUR 24.277bn of a EUR 43.0bn threshold. That is not a collapsing second half — Crop Science sells into Northern Hemisphere planting, which loads the first.