91% probability Mainfreight's H1 FY2027 revenue reaches at least NZ$2.60bn. FY2026 revenue was a record NZ$5.38bn, up 2.8%, even as profit fell 8.5% on wage and diesel costs. Mainfreight issues no numeric guidance, so this threshold is anchored on delivered results.
Mainfreight reported FY2026 (year to 31 March 2026) revenue of NZ$5.38bn, up 2.8%, with profit before tax of NZ$350.9m and net profit of NZ$251.0m, both down 8.5%. Adjusted for foreign exchange, group revenue was down 0.2% and profit before tax down 10.7%. Transport revenue lifted 10.2% to NZ$2.49bn while underlying profit fell 8.9% as wage and diesel costs compressed margins. The New Zealand business grew revenue 3.8% to NZ$1.2bn with profit before tax down 10.2% to NZ$120.8m. NZ$112m was invested in land and buildings. Management said it remains confident of ongoing improvement and that trading in April and May was encouraging despite Middle East disruption and elevated fuel pricing. Source: Mainfreight full-year results to 31 March 2026.
We lock a binary: Mainfreight's reported group revenue for the six months to 30 September 2026 is NZ$2.60bn or higher. Confidence 91%.
FY2026 revenue was NZ$5.38bn, so half a year at the same run rate is about NZ$2.69bn. The threshold allows roughly 3% below that.
Mainfreight's FY2026 is a study in why metric choice decides a forecast. Revenue rose 2.8% to a record NZ$5.38bn. Profit before tax fell 8.5%. Transport revenue rose 10.2% while its underlying profit fell 8.9%. The whole gap is cost inflation — wages and diesel — passing through faster than the company could reprice.
A profit lock here would be a forecast about wage settlements and fuel markets. A revenue lock is a forecast about freight volumes and pricing, which for a logistics network with Mainfreight's footprint is far more inertial. That is the deliberate choice, not an accident of what was easiest.
There is no numeric guidance to anchor to. Mainfreight is well known for declining to forecast, and its outlook statement is qualitative — confidence in ongoing improvement, with April and May trading described as encouraging. So the threshold sits on delivered results and the criterion says so.
The residual 9% is currency and the cost pressure continuing. Note that FY2026 revenue rose 2.8% as reported but fell 0.2% adjusted for foreign exchange, so a reversal in the New Zealand dollar would work directly against a reported-revenue threshold. That is the main path to a miss.
RAOSCAFF locks P-292 on 2026-09-03, before the half-year result. Scored against group revenue as reported by Mainfreight for the six months to 30 September 2026.
Reported revenue rose 2.8% while FX-adjusted revenue fell 0.2%. A currency reversal is the main path to a miss on a reported-revenue threshold.