91% probability Summerset Group delivers at least 650 homes group-wide in 2026. Group guidance is 700-800 including Australia; New Zealand-only guidance was cut by 50 to 600-650. Those are two different numbers and the criterion names which one it scores.
Summerset Group reported H1 2026 total sales of 813, up 17% on the same period in 2025, with new sales up 12% and resales up 23%. 454 homes were delivered across New Zealand and Australia year to date. Group deliveries remain on track within the 700 to 800 homes forecast when Australian operations are included, while New Zealand FY2026 home deliveries were REVISED DOWN to 600-650, a reduction of 50 homes, reflecting changed economic conditions following the Iran conflict. Development margins for the year are expected within the long-term guidance range of 20 to 25%. Half-year 2026 financial results were released on 27 August 2026. Source: Summerset Group H1 2026 disclosures.
We lock a binary: Summerset Group's reported group home deliveries for full-year 2026 are 650 or more. Confidence 91%.
Group guidance is 700-800 homes. Our threshold sits 50 below the floor of that range, and 454 were already delivered year to date at the half.
Summerset publishes deliveries two ways: a New Zealand figure and a group figure that adds Australia. In this reporting round they moved in opposite directions. The New Zealand number was revised DOWN by 50 homes to 600-650, explicitly attributed to changed economic conditions after the Iran conflict. The group number was reaffirmed at 700-800.
A threshold of 650 is at the very top of the New Zealand range and comfortably below the group range. Scoring it against the wrong one would flip the result entirely — this is not a marginal ambiguity, it is the difference between an almost-certain hit and a coin flip. The criterion below names group deliveries including Australia.
The demand side looks solid despite the New Zealand downgrade. Total sales rose 17% in the half, with resales up 23% and new sales up 12%, and 454 homes were already delivered by mid-year against a 700-800 full-year target. Retirement village operators sell into a demographic trend rather than an economic cycle, which is what makes delivery volumes forecastable at all.
The residual 9% is construction rather than demand — build programmes slip, consents move, and a delivery is only counted when a resident settles. The New Zealand cut shows management is willing to revise, which cuts both ways for a lock like this.
RAOSCAFF locks P-293 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2026 result. Scored against group home deliveries as reported by Summerset Group for the twelve months to 31 December 2026.
650 sits at the top of the New Zealand range and below the group range. Scoring the wrong one flips this from near-certain to a coin flip.