RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-294
Prediction Series · P-294

A New Zealand company guiding in Australian dollars — name the currency.

91% probability EBOS Group's FY2027 underlying EBITDA reaches at least A$610m, against guidance of A$635-655m implying about 5% growth. FY2026 delivered revenue of $13.5bn, up 9.9%, with underlying EBITDA of $614m.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored floor, healthcare distribution Locked · 2026-09-03 · before the FY2027 result Resolves · ~2027-08-19 · EBOS Group FY2027 results (ebosgroup.com) Scored · binary: reported FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA >= A$610m yes/no
EBOS FY2027 underlying EBITDA · our locked floor
A$610m
underlying EBITDA in Australian dollars · vs A$635-655m guided

EBOS Group delivered on its FY2026 guidance with revenue up 9.9% to $13.5bn and underlying EBITDA up 5% to $614m, despite fuel and foreign exchange headwinds. For fiscal 2027 EBOS expects underlying EBITDA of between A$635m and A$655m, implying about 5% growth at the midpoint. Capital expenditure is expected to normalise to approximately $100m in FY2027 from $145m in FY2026. The completion of a $360m distribution centre renewal programme positions the group for efficiency gains, with Kemps Creek already operating 20% more productively and a target of 30% uplift by FY2027. Source: EBOS Group FY2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

EBOS Group's FY2027 underlying EBITDA is at least A$610m — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: EBOS Group's reported underlying EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is A$610m or higher. Confidence 91%.

Guidance is A$635-655m. Our threshold sits about 3.9% below the floor of that range.

— 2 · A dual-listed company, and the currency is not decoration

EBOS is New Zealand's largest listed company by revenue and it guides in Australian dollars.

EBOS is headquartered in Christchurch, listed on both the NZX and ASX, and generates the majority of its revenue in Australia. Its FY2027 underlying EBITDA guidance is stated in Australian dollars — A$635-655m — while the FY2026 comparative of $614m appears in reporting without a currency qualifier attached.

For a threshold with under 4% of headroom, the New Zealand dollar to Australian dollar rate could account for the entire buffer on its own. The criterion below therefore names Australian dollars explicitly and specifies what governs if the company reports in a different presentation currency. This is the same class of hazard as P-258 on Roche, arriving through a dual listing rather than through translation.

The business itself is a defensive one: pharmaceutical wholesaling and healthcare product distribution, where volumes track prescriptions and demographics rather than economic cycles, at thin but stable margins. The FY2027 story is efficiency — a $360m distribution centre programme now complete, with Kemps Creek already 20% more productive and a 30% target — and capital expenditure normalising to about $100m from $145m.

The residual 9% is margin. Distribution runs on very thin percentages, so a small move in purchase terms or a lost contract shows up disproportionately in EBITDA. FY2026 already absorbed fuel and FX headwinds.

Locked on 2026-09-03 — scored against EBOS Group's reported FY2027 underlying EBITDA.

RAOSCAFF locks P-294 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against underlying EBITDA as reported by EBOS Group for the year to 30 June 2027.

Locked
2026-09-03 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-08-19 — EBOS Group Limited FY2027 results
Source
EBOS Group Limited FY2027 results, UNDERLYING EBITDA in AUSTRALIAN dollars (ebosgroup.com investor centre)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2027 UNDERLYING EBITDA is A$610m or greater; NO if below. UNDERLYING EBITDA in AUSTRALIAN DOLLARS — the currency and basis the A$635-655m guidance is issued on. If EBOS reports the figure in New Zealand dollars, the Australian-dollar figure reconciled to its own guidance governs; we apply no conversion of our own. NOT statutory/reported EBITDA, NOT revenue, NOT net profit after tax, and NOT capital expenditure. EBOS's financial year ends 30 JUNE 2027.

Under 4% of headroom on a threshold whose guidance is stated in a different currency from the company's domicile. The NZD/AUD rate alone could consume the buffer.