RaoscaffResearch
Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-295
Prediction Series · P-295

A regulated fibre monopoly — NZ$715m, at 92%.

92% probability Chorus' FY2027 EBITDA reaches at least NZ$715m. Guidance is NZ$730-760m after FY2026 EBITDA of NZ$726m, with fibre uptake climbing to 75.9% and fibre broadband revenue rising to NZ$792m.

Type · Prediction Lock · guidance-anchored floor, fibre network infrastructure Locked · 2026-09-03 · before the FY2027 result Resolves · ~2027-08-23 · Chorus FY2027 results (company.chorus.co.nz) Scored · binary: reported FY2027 EBITDA >= NZ$715m yes/no
Chorus FY2027 EBITDA · our locked floor
NZ$715m
full-year EBITDA · vs NZ$730-760m guided

Chorus reported FY2026 EBITDA of NZ$726m, up 3%, with net profit rising to NZ$37m from NZ$4m in FY2025 and operating revenue of NZ$1.03bn, up NZ$15m. Fibre uptake in the Chorus service area reached 75.9% from 74.3%, with Wellington and Dunedin leading at 79%. Fibre broadband (GPON) revenue increased to NZ$792m from NZ$745m and average revenue per user grew 2% to NZ$59.51. For FY2027 Chorus guided EBITDA of NZ$730-760m, total capital expenditure of NZ$375-415m and a dividend of at least NZ$0.62 per share. Source: Chorus FY2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Chorus' FY2027 EBITDA is at least NZ$715m — P = 0.92.

We lock a binary: Chorus' reported EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is NZ$715m or higher. Confidence 92%.

Guidance is NZ$730-760m and FY2026 delivered NZ$726m. Our threshold sits about 2% below the guidance floor and below the year already banked.

— 2 · The other side of a company already in the series

Spark sells the broadband. Chorus owns the fibre it runs on.

The series already carries Spark New Zealand at P-246, and this is deliberately the counterparty rather than a second bet on the same thing. Spark is a retail service provider selling connections to households; Chorus owns and operates the fibre network those connections run over, and charges regulated wholesale prices to Spark and every other retailer.

That structure makes Chorus behave like a regulated utility rather than a telco. Revenue is a function of connection counts and a regulated price, not of winning customers from competitors — Chorus is indifferent to which retailer wins the household, as long as the household connects. Fibre uptake rising to 75.9% from 74.3%, with GPON revenue up to NZ$792m from NZ$745m and ARPU up 2%, is that machine working.

The threshold is set below both the guidance floor and FY2026's delivered EBITDA, which is deliberate. Chorus is in a heavy capital expenditure phase — NZ$375-415m guided for FY2027 against EBITDA of roughly NZ$740m — and the regulatory determination that sets its allowable revenue is the single largest external variable in the business.

The residual 8% is that regulatory settlement and the copper-to-fibre transition tail. Chorus has been through determinations that moved its economics before, and a firm's whose prices are set by a regulator is never fully in control of its own EBITDA line.

Locked on 2026-09-03 — scored against Chorus' reported FY2027 EBITDA.

RAOSCAFF locks P-295 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against EBITDA as reported by Chorus for the year to 30 June 2027.

Locked
2026-09-03 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2027-08-23 — Chorus Limited FY2027 results
Source
Chorus Limited FY2027 results, EBITDA in New Zealand dollars (company.chorus.co.nz investors)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported FY2027 EBITDA is NZ$715m or greater; NO if below. EBITDA as reported on the basis of the NZ$730-760m guidance — NOT net profit (NZ$37m in FY2026), NOT operating revenue (NZ$1.03bn in FY2026), NOT fibre/GPON revenue alone (NZ$792m), NOT capital expenditure (guided separately at NZ$375-415m), and NOT the dividend (guided at a minimum NZ$0.62 per share). Chorus' financial year ends 30 JUNE 2027.

Spark at P-246 sells the connection; Chorus owns the fibre underneath it. Opposite ends of the same household, and a regulator sets the price between them.