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Prediction Series · Lock · Issue P-298
Prediction Series · P-298

The rupee figures disagree. The unit count does not.

91% probability Maruti Suzuki sells at least 620,000 units in Q2 FY2027. Q1 delivered 682,724 units, up 29.3%, with domestic market share up 2.3 points to 41.2%. Revenue and profit figures diverge across sources; the volume figure does not.

Type · Prediction Lock · level-anchored volume floor, automotive OEM Locked · 2026-09-03 · before the Q2 FY2027 result Resolves · ~2026-10-30 · Maruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 results (marutisuzuki.com) Scored · binary: reported Q2 FY2027 TOTAL SALES VOLUMES >= 620,000 units yes/no
Maruti Suzuki Q2 FY2027 total sales volumes · our locked floor
620,000 units
quarterly total sales volumes · vs 682,724 units in Q1 FY2027

Maruti Suzuki reported Q1 FY2027 sales volumes of 682,724 units, up 29.3% from 527,861 units, with domestic small car sales up 34.1%, SUVs up 44.6% and exports up 28.6%. Domestic market share rose 2.3 percentage points to 41.2%. Net profit declined on rising raw material costs and supply disruption linked to regional conflict. NOTE: monetary figures diverge across sources for the same quarter — net sales are reported as ₹49,959.1 crore (up 36%) in one place and revenue as ₹52,456 crore in another, while net profit appears as ₹3,352.1 crore in one source and ₹3,447 crore in another, described variously as down 9% and down 11%. The unit volume figure of 682,724 is consistent across sources. Source: Maruti Suzuki Q1 FY2027 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Maruti Suzuki's Q2 FY2027 total sales volumes are at least 620,000 units — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: Maruti Suzuki's reported total sales volumes for Q2 FY2027 are 620,000 units or more. Confidence 91%.

Q1 delivered 682,724 units. The threshold allows about 9% below that, into a quarter that contains the Indian festive season.

— 2 · Every rupee figure disagreed with itself. The unit count did not.

₹49,959 crore or ₹52,456 crore? ₹3,352 crore or ₹3,447 crore? 682,724 units, everywhere.

Assembling this brief produced an unusually messy monetary picture for a single quarter. Net sales appear as ₹49,959.1 crore in one source and revenue as ₹52,456 crore in another — a gap of about ₹2,500 crore, almost certainly net sales versus total revenue including other income. Net profit appears as ₹3,352.1 crore in one place and ₹3,447 crore in another, and the same decline is described as 9% in one report and 11% in another.

We did not adjudicate any of it, because we did not need to. The unit volume figure is reported identically everywhere: 682,724 units, up 29.3% from 527,861. That is the quantity the sources agree about, so that is what this lock is built on — the same rule applied at P-226 on China's M2, P-232 on Dr Reddy's, P-258 on Roche, P-269 on Woodside and P-272 on Bank Central Asia.

Volumes are also the better measure of this particular business right now. Q1's story is that Maruti sold far more cars and made less money — SUVs up 44.6%, small cars up 34.1%, exports up 28.6%, domestic share up 2.3 points to 41.2%, and profit down on raw material costs. A profit lock would be a forecast about commodity prices; a volume lock is a forecast about Indian car demand.

The residual 9% is supply. Q1 profit was hit partly by supply disruption linked to regional conflict, and an automaker cannot sell what it cannot build — a components shortage would show up in volumes directly.

Locked on 2026-09-03 — scored against Maruti Suzuki's reported Q2 FY2027 total sales volumes.

RAOSCAFF locks P-298 on 2026-09-03, before the Q2 FY2027 result. Scored against total sales volumes as reported by Maruti Suzuki for the quarter ended 30 September 2026.

Locked
2026-09-03 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves
~2026-10-30 — Maruti Suzuki India Limited Q2 FY2027 results
Source
Maruti Suzuki India Limited Q2 FY2027 results, TOTAL SALES VOLUMES in units (marutisuzuki.com investor relations)
Scored by
Binary: YES if reported Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended 30 September 2026) TOTAL SALES VOLUMES are 620,000 units or more; NO if below. TOTAL sales volumes including domestic sales, sales to other OEMs and exports, on the same basis as the 682,724 figure reported for Q1 FY2027 — NOT domestic volumes alone, NOT exports alone, NOT net sales or revenue in rupees (which diverge across sources by about ₹2,500 crore for Q1), NOT net profit, and NOT market share.

Q1 monetary figures diverge across sources on both revenue and profit. The unit count is identical everywhere, so the unit count is the lock.