95% probability the Big-4 hyperscalers (Microsoft + Alphabet + Amazon + Meta) together spend ≥$600B in total capex (including finance leases, as guided) in CY2026. Post-Q1 2026 guidance low-end sums to ~$695B — a $95B cushion.
Post-Q1 2026 guidance (same basis — total capex incl. finance leases): MSFT ~$190B · AMZN ~$200B · GOOGL $180–190B · META $125–145B. Low-end sum ~$695B; resolves against reported figures on the same basis as guidance cited in each issuer's Q4 earnings.
We lock a binary claim: the combined CY2026 total capital expenditure (including finance leases, as guided and as reported) of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta is ≥$600,000,000,000. Confidence 0.95. The resolution metric uses the same capex basis as each issuer's own guidance — total capex including finance leases, not PP&E-purchases-only.
Post-Q1 2026 guidance (all four firms raised or maintained vs prior-year): Microsoft ~$190B, Amazon ~$200B, Alphabet $180–190B, Meta $125–145B. Low-end sum ~$695B — a ~$95B (16%) cushion above the $600B threshold. All four issuers have publicly stated AI infrastructure investment as a multi-year priority; none has signaled a capex reduction. Resolves against Q4-2026 earnings releases and FY2026 10-K capex lines (SEC EDGAR, expected ~Feb 2027); we use the same basis as guidance (total capex incl. finance leases) to avoid a basis mismatch.
RAOSCAFF locks P-30 on 2026-06-21. Resolution metric is pre-committed: total capex including finance leases, the same basis each issuer uses in its own guidance.
If any issuer changes its capex disclosure basis between guidance and reporting, we use the reported figure on the most comparable available basis and note the adjustment.