90% probability Ryman Healthcare delivers at least 150 retirement living units and aged care beds in FY2027, against guidance of 157-168. Ryman posted a NZ$171.3m net loss in FY2026 but doubled operating EBITDAF and produced positive free cash flow for the first time in over a decade.
Ryman Healthcare reported FY2026 revenue of NZ$855.6m, up 13%, with a net loss of NZ$171.3m — narrowed 61% from FY2025 — and a loss per share of NZ$0.17 against NZ$0.61. Operating EBITDAF doubled and the company delivered positive free cash flow of NZ$188m for the first time in over a decade. For FY2027 Ryman is targeting a build rate of 157-168 retirement living units and aged care beds, including at Patrick Hogan Village in Cambridge and Richard Hadlee Village in Christchurch, with operating EBITDAF per care bed of NZ$20,000-25,000 and capital expenditure of NZ$150-180m. Source: Ryman Healthcare FY2026 results.
We lock a binary: Ryman Healthcare's reported FY2027 build delivery is 150 retirement living units and aged care beds or more. Confidence 90%.
Guidance is 157-168. Our threshold sits seven below the floor of that range, about 4.5%.
Ryman lost NZ$171.3m in FY2026. That loss narrowed 61% and the operational picture improved sharply — operating EBITDAF doubled, free cash flow turned positive at NZ$188m for the first time in over a decade — but a profit-based lock on a company still posting a nine-figure loss would be forecasting the shape of a turnaround rather than the performance of a business.
Retirement village accounting makes this worse rather than better. Reported results swing on fair-value movements in investment property, which are non-cash and can dominate the profit line entirely. That is a large part of why the loss exists alongside doubling operating earnings.
Build delivery has none of those problems. It is a physical count of units and beds handed over, management guides it explicitly at 157-168, and it is the operational metric that actually drives future revenue — every unit built becomes an occupancy right sold and a management fee stream. So this brief locks the count.
The same choice was made for Summerset at P-293 one tranche ago, and the two now sit alongside each other as the series' retirement-village pair. The residual 10% is construction: consents, weather and subcontractor availability move handover dates, and a unit finished on 1 April counts in the following year.
RAOSCAFF locks P-301 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against build delivery as reported by Ryman Healthcare for the year to 31 March 2027.
Retirement village profit swings on non-cash property revaluations. Units handed over do not. That is why the lock counts buildings, not earnings.