90% probability UltraTech Cement sells at least 36.0 million tonnes on a consolidated basis in Q2 FY2027. Q1 delivered a record 41.31 Mt, up 12.2%, at 81% capacity utilisation — but Q2 is July to September, the Indian monsoon, and construction stops.
UltraTech Cement reported Q1 FY2027 consolidated sales volumes of 41.31 million tonnes, up 12.2%, with DOMESTIC sales volumes of 39.2 million tonnes, up 13.1%. Consolidated net sales rose 16% to ₹24,465 crore from ₹21,040 crore, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent grew 16.8% to ₹2,599.3 crore (reported as ₹2,604 crore in one source). Capacity utilisation was 81% on installed capacity of 200.1 MTPA in India, with 205.5 MTPA globally. Grey cement capacity is expected to reach 212.7 MTPA in FY2027 and 242.5 MTPA in FY2028. Source: UltraTech Cement Q1 FY2027 results.
We lock a binary: UltraTech Cement's reported consolidated sales volumes for Q2 FY2027 are 36.0 million tonnes or more. Confidence 90%.
Q1 delivered 41.31 Mt. The threshold sits about 13% below that, and the monsoon is the entire reason.
UltraTech reports domestic sales volumes of 39.2 Mt and consolidated sales volumes of 41.31 Mt for Q1 FY2027 — the difference being its international operations, and it is 2.1 million tonnes wide. On a threshold of 36.0 Mt that gap is more than half the buffer, so a criterion that said only "sales volumes" would be leaving a material part of the outcome to whichever line the scorer opened.
The criterion below names consolidated volumes. Note the net profit figure also appears inconsistently across sources, as ₹2,599.3 crore and ₹2,604 crore, which is a further reason to lock a volume rather than a rupee figure.
On seasonality: Q2 of the Indian fiscal year runs July to September, which is the south-west monsoon. Construction activity across most of India slows sharply, and cement is not poured in heavy rain. A quarter-on-quarter decline is the normal pattern, not a warning sign, and pricing a 13% buffer against Q1 is calibrating to the calendar rather than to a fear about demand.
The structural picture is strong: 81% capacity utilisation on 200.1 MTPA of Indian capacity, volume growth of 12.2% outpacing the industry, and capacity expanding to 212.7 MTPA in FY2027. The residual 10% is an unusually heavy monsoon extending into September, or a demand pause in infrastructure spending.
RAOSCAFF locks P-305 on 2026-09-03, before the Q2 FY2027 result. Scored against consolidated sales volumes as reported by UltraTech Cement for the quarter ended 30 September 2026.
The domestic-versus-consolidated gap of 2.1 Mt is more than half the buffer on this threshold. Naming the line is most of the work.