88% probability Fletcher Building's FY2027 EBIT excluding property sales reaches at least NZ$300m. FY2026 delivered NZ$362m on that basis, but management has explicitly warned that commercial delays and weaker residential throughput will weigh on the first half of FY2027.
Fletcher Building reported FY2026 EBIT before significant items of NZ$414m, up NZ$85m; EXCLUDING pre-announced property sales, EBIT was NZ$362m, an 11% improvement on FY2025. FY2026 continuing-operations EBIT guidance was raised to NZ$400-403m including approximately NZ$52m from surplus property sales, largely the Laminex Cheltenham site in Australia, or NZ$348-351m excluding property sales. Earnings per share were positive at NZ$0.212, the first positive result since FY2023, and net debt fell to NZ$637m from NZ$999m, inside the NZ$400-900m target range. Management warned that commercial project delays, weaker residential throughput and input-cost uncertainty causing project delays and cancellations will, if sustained, weigh on 1H FY2027 performance. Source: Fletcher Building FY2026 results.
We lock a binary: Fletcher Building's reported FY2027 EBIT before significant items, excluding property sales, is NZ$300m or higher. Confidence 88%.
FY2026 delivered NZ$362m on the same basis. Our threshold sits about 17% below that — the widest buffer and the lowest confidence in this tranche.
Fletcher's FY2026 was a genuine turnaround: EBIT before significant items up NZ$85m, the first positive earnings per share since FY2023, net debt down from NZ$999m to NZ$637m and back inside the target range. On the numbers alone this looks like a business with momentum.
But management did something unusual and useful — it warned. Commercial project delays, weaker residential throughput, and input-cost uncertainty causing delays and cancellations were all flagged as pressures on the first half of FY2027. That is a company preparing the market for a softer period, and a forecaster who ignores it in favour of the improving trend line is choosing the pleasant half of the evidence.
So this lock does the opposite of what the momentum would suggest: 17% of buffer against the delivered year, and 0.88 confidence, the lowest in the tranche. The series has argued repeatedly that the confidence spread should carry information rather than decoration, and this is what that looks like when a company gives an honest warning.
The residual 12% is the warned scenario simply proving worse or longer than management currently expects, in a New Zealand construction market that has been difficult for several years.
Fletcher's FY2026 EBIT before significant items is NZ$414m including approximately NZ$52m from surplus property sales, largely the Laminex Cheltenham site in Australia, and NZ$362m excluding them. Both figures are published; they measure different things.
A lock scored against the inclusive figure could be satisfied by selling another building, which would say nothing about whether the building-materials business improved. That is not a forecast about Fletcher, it is a forecast about its asset disposal programme. The criterion below scores the ex-property figure and names the exclusion explicitly.
RAOSCAFF locks P-306 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against EBIT before significant items, excluding property sales, as reported by Fletcher Building for the year to 30 June 2027.
A lock met by selling a building is not a lock about the business. And when management warns about the next half, the buffer widens rather than the story changing.