88% probability OpenAI's annualized revenue run-rate reaches ≥$30B by end-2026. Run-rate was ~$25B in Feb 2026 at ~$2.5B/mo growth pace; the threshold requires +$5B over ~10 months. Sources pre-committed: Sacra series corroborated by The Information / Reuters.
Sacra OpenAI run-rate series: ~$20B end-2025 → ~$25B Feb 2026 (~$2.5B/mo). Needs +$5B over ~10 months to hit $30B. Sources pre-committed: Sacra (primary) corroborated by The Information / Reuters.
We lock a binary claim: OpenAI's annualized revenue run-rate is ≥$30B as reported by December 2026, per the pre-committed source set (Sacra run-rate series, corroborated by The Information and/or Reuters). Confidence 0.88. Because OpenAI is private, resolution depends on reported/leaked figures from the pre-committed sources — not an audited filing.
The Sacra OpenAI run-rate series (sacra.com) tracks annualized revenue: ~$20B end-2025 → ~$25B February 2026, a pace of ~$2.5B/mo. The $30B threshold requires +$5B in ~10 months — well inside the trailing pace even with a slowdown. The pre-committed source set: Sacra is the primary; The Information and Reuters provide corroboration. A HIT requires ≥$30B as stated by at least one of these named sources referencing an end-2026 data point. We pre-commit sources here — in advance, not at resolution — to avoid the P-01R decimal-fetch trap.
RAOSCAFF locks P-31 on 2026-06-21. Sources are pre-committed: Sacra (primary) corroborated by The Information / Reuters. A HIT requires ≥$30B stated by a named source for an end-2026 period.
If no pre-committed source publishes an end-2026 data point by March 31 2027, the prediction is marked UNRESOLVED rather than scored.