91% probability State Bank of India's Q2 FY2027 standalone net profit reaches at least INR 19,000 crore. Q1 FY2027 standalone profit was INR 21,121 crore; consolidated was INR 24,113 crore. Both were reported as net profit. Only one is being scored.
State Bank of India reported a record Q1 FY2027 standalone net profit of INR 21,121 crore, up 10.23% year-on-year from INR 19,160 crore. On a consolidated basis net profit reached INR 24,113 crore, up 12.08%. Net interest income was INR 46,992 crore, up 14.88% year-on-year and 5.89% sequentially. Whole-bank net interest margin moderated to 2.86% from 2.89% a year earlier, while domestic NIM improved seven basis points sequentially to 3.00%. Gross advances approached INR 50 lakh crore and asset quality improved. Results were reviewed on 7 August 2026. Source: State Bank of India Q1 FY2027 results.
We lock a binary: State Bank of India's reported standalone net profit for Q2 FY2027 is INR 19,000 crore or higher. Confidence 91%.
Q1 FY2027 standalone profit was INR 21,121 crore. Our threshold sits about 10% below that, and just below the INR 19,160 crore the bank earned in the year-ago June quarter. The lock does not require growth. It requires that the September quarter not fall back beyond where the bank already was a year ago.
Coverage of SBI's Q1 FY2027 result carried two different profit figures, side by side, in reputable outlets. One set of headlines said profit rose 10.2% to INR 21,121 crore. Another said profit rose 12.08% to INR 24,113 crore. Neither was wrong. The first is standalone, the parent bank alone. The second is consolidated, including subsidiaries such as the insurance and asset-management arms.
The gap is close to INR 3,000 crore — larger than the entire quarterly profit of most listed Indian banks. A lock written as SBI Q2 profit above INR 20,000 crore would be simultaneously a hit and a miss depending on which press release paragraph the scorer happened to read twelve months later.
So the criterion names standalone explicitly, and the scoring block below rules out consolidated in terms. This is the same discipline applied to UltraTech at P-305, where domestic and consolidated cement volumes differed by 2.1 million tonnes, and to Hindustan Unilever at P-304, where the direction of profit itself was reported both ways.
The operating picture behind the Q1 number is solid. Net interest income grew 14.88% to INR 46,992 crore and 5.89% sequentially, gross advances approached INR 50 lakh crore, and asset quality improved. Domestic net interest margin rose seven basis points sequentially to 3.00%, even as the whole-bank figure eased to 2.86% from 2.89%.
Quarterly bank profit nevertheless moves on items that sit below that line. A single large corporate slippage can force a provision that swallows a quarter's growth. Wage-revision provisioning at a public sector bank of SBI's headcount is lumpy by nature. Treasury gains and losses on a book that size swing the reported number without telling you anything about the lending franchise.
That is why the threshold sits a full 10% below the Q1 print rather than 3-4%. It is a buffer against accounting lumpiness in a single quarter, not a view on Indian credit demand. The residual 9% is a large provisioning event or a wage-settlement charge concentrated in the September quarter.
RAOSCAFF locks P-310 on 2026-09-03, before the Q2 FY2027 result. Scored against standalone net profit as reported by State Bank of India for the quarter to 30 September 2026.
Two outlets, two profit figures, INR 3,000 crore apart, both accurate. The lock says which one it means.