91% probability Vector's FY2027 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least NZ$500m, against guidance of NZ$540-560m. FY2026 delivered NZ$482m, up 20% on the first full year of the Commerce Commission price reset. Unlike this series' three hydro locks, a dry year does nothing to it.
Vector Limited reported FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of NZ$482m, up 20% on the prior year, and group net profit after tax of NZ$240m, up 55%. Revenue growth of 12% reflected the first full year of the Commerce Commission's electricity distribution pricing reset, supporting greater earnings from its core Auckland electricity operations. Operating cash flow increased NZ$117m, or 23%, to NZ$633m. The company invested a record NZ$544m of gross capital expenditure, including NZ$512m into Auckland's electricity network. FY2027 guidance is adjusted EBITDA of NZ$540m to NZ$560m, gross capital expenditure of NZ$605m to NZ$635m and capital contributions of NZ$160m to NZ$190m. Source: Vector Limited FY2026 annual results.
We lock a binary: Vector Limited's reported adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is NZ$500m or higher. Confidence 91%.
Guidance is NZ$540-560m. Our threshold sits NZ$40m, about 7.4%, below the floor of that range — and NZ$18m above the FY2026 actual of NZ$482m. This is one of the few locks in the series that requires growth rather than merely resisting decline, and the reason is what produces the growth.
One tranche ago, at P-308, this series disclosed that its three New Zealand gentailer locks — Contact at P-244, Meridian at P-300 and Mercury at P-308 — are not independent. All three turn on how much water arrives in South Island catchments. A dry year fails them together.
Naming a concentration is the first half of that discipline. The second half is doing something about it. Vector is that: a New Zealand earner whose result is set by a regulatory determination rather than by weather.
Vector distributes electricity across Auckland. It does not generate it, so hydrology is not an input to its earnings. Revenue rose 12% in FY2026 because the Commerce Commission's electricity distribution pricing reset completed its first full year, and adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to NZ$482m on the back of it. That is a price path set by a regulator on a multi-year cycle, which is about as close to contracted revenue as a listed utility gets.
So a drought that pushes P-244, P-300 and P-308 toward their floors leaves P-316 untouched. That is the point of including it.
Most locks in this series sit below the last reported figure, because the safest claim is usually that a business does not go backwards. This one sits NZ$18m above FY2026's NZ$482m, which is a stronger claim and deserves a stronger reason.
The reason is that the FY2027 guidance of NZ$540-560m is not a demand forecast. It reflects the continuing regulatory price path plus growth in the regulated asset base, and Vector is spending into that base at record pace — NZ$544m of gross capital expenditure in FY2026, NZ$512m of it into the Auckland electricity network, with FY2027 gross capex guided higher again at NZ$605-635m. In a regulated network, that spending is the mechanism by which allowed revenue rises.
The supporting evidence is cash rather than accounting: operating cash flow rose 23%, or NZ$117m, to NZ$633m. A 20% adjusted EBITDA increase accompanied by a 23% operating cash flow increase is a result being delivered in cash.
Our threshold still sits 7.4% under the guidance floor, which absorbs a normal degree of delivery slippage. The residual 9% is a regulatory or accounting reclassification that changes what adjusted EBITDA contains, a materially colder or milder year moving volumes, or capital programme delays deferring revenue recognition into FY2028.
RAOSCAFF locks P-316 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against adjusted EBITDA as reported by Vector Limited for the year to 30 June 2027.
Contact, Meridian and Mercury share a catchment. Vector shares a regulator. Disclosing a concentration is half the job; the other half is adding something that does not sit inside it.