TKO Group FY2026 — ≥$5.60B floor, locked at 90%.

90% probability TKO Group (NYSE: TKO) reports full-year 2026 revenue ≥$5.60B. Management guides $5.675–5.775B; Q1 2026 printed $1.597B (+26% YoY). The $5.60B floor sits $75M below guidance floor — framed as a floor, not a band.

Type · Prediction Lock · corporate-KPI Locked · 2026-06-21 · based on Q1 2026 results and FY guidance Resolves · ~2027-02-28 · TKO Group FY2026 earnings release / 10-K Scored · binary: FY2026 reported total revenue ≥$5.60B

TKO mgmt FY2026 revenue guidance

$5.675–5.775B

floor locked at ≥$5.60B · 90% confidence

TKO reaffirmed $5.675–5.775B FY2026 guidance (most recent earnings call). Q1 2026 total revenue $1.597B (+26% YoY; FY2025 $4.735B). Floor $5.60B = guidance floor minus $75M buffer. Source: TKO Group FY2026 10-K (SEC EDGAR CIK 0001973266).

— 1 · The Locked Call

FY2026 revenue ≥$5.60B — floor call, P = 0.90.

We lock a floor binary claim: TKO Group (NYSE: TKO) FY2026 reported total revenue is ≥$5,600,000,000. Confidence 0.90. This is a floor call, not a band — we do not predict upside, which leaves the strong-Q1 tail open.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

$1.597B Q1 print; guidance $5.675B floor; $5.60B sits $75M below guidance.

TKO reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of $5.675–5.775B on the most recent earnings call (SEC EDGAR CIK 0001973266). Q1 2026 printed $1.597B (+26% YoY), well above the $1.184B in Q1 2025. FY2025 full-year was $4.735B; Q1 alone represents ~34% of the FY2025 base. The $5.60B floor is $75M below the guidance floor — a deliberate buffer. Resolves against the total revenue line in TKO's FY2026 earnings release or 10-K, expected ~February 2027.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against TKO Group's reported FY2026 total revenue in the 10-K or earnings release.

RAOSCAFF locks P-32 on 2026-06-21. Floor framing removes upside-breakout risk — we score only against the stated minimum threshold.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-02-28 — TKO Group FY2026 earnings release or 10-K (SEC EDGAR CIK 0001973266)
Source: TKO Group Holdings, Inc. FY2026 Annual Report / 10-K, total revenue line (SEC EDGAR)
Scored by: Binary: YES if reported FY2026 total revenue ≥$5,600,000,000; NO otherwise

Floor call only — upside is open and not scored; we score strictly against the ≥$5.60B threshold.