90% probability SkyCity's FY2027 underlying EBITDA reaches at least NZ$150m, after NZ$181.6m in FY2026. The same year produced a reported EBITDA of NZ$120.5m. No FY2027 guidance was given, and a NZ$30m cost-out programme is the main visible support.
SkyCity Entertainment Group delivered FY2026 underlying EBITDA of NZ$181.6m, down 22.3% year-on-year and in line with revised May guidance, as flat revenue masked a 5.9% decline in gaming revenue offset by non-gaming growth. Reported EBITDA was NZ$120.5m, down 44.2% or NZ$95.6m, owing to several significant accounting adjustments. No FY2027 earnings guidance was provided due to macro uncertainty, though management targets a material uplift from new online market entry and cost initiatives. A cost-out programme targets NZ$30m in FY2027 and NZ$70m in FY2028, and asset sales are expected to generate NZ$275-300m by December 2026. Source: SkyCity Entertainment Group FY2026 annual results.
We lock a binary: SkyCity Entertainment Group's reported underlying EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is NZ$150m or higher. Confidence 90%.
There is no FY2027 guidance to anchor to. FY2026 underlying EBITDA was NZ$181.6m, so our threshold sits NZ$31.6m — about 17.4% — below the banked actual. That is a wide buffer, and a business that just fell 22.3% with no guidance published deserves one.
SkyCity's FY2026 produced two EBITDA figures. Underlying EBITDA of NZ$181.6m, down 22.3%. Reported EBITDA of NZ$120.5m, down 44.2%, a fall of NZ$95.6m attributed to several significant accounting adjustments. The gap between the two is NZ$61.1m — a third of the underlying number.
A lock written as SkyCity FY2027 EBITDA above NZ$150m would be unscoreable. If FY2027 produces underlying NZ$165m and reported NZ$130m, the same threshold resolves HIT on one basis and MISS on the other, and whoever scores it a year from now gets to choose. The criterion below names UNDERLYING and rules out reported in terms.
This is the same class of ambiguity as Fletcher Building at P-306, where EBIT before significant items included about NZ$52m of property sales, and the lock deliberately scored the ex-property figure. Where two versions of a number exist, the lock has to say which one it means before the result is known, not after.
SkyCity declined to provide FY2027 earnings guidance, citing macro uncertainty. That places it in the same category as Air New Zealand, which this series scouted and dropped at P-307 for exactly that reason. The difference is that SkyCity left behind quantified, forward, company-stated commitments that a level-anchored lock can lean on, where Air New Zealand's single forward figure was a bespoke disclosure unlikely to be restated in the same form.
The commitments are specific: a cost-out programme targeting NZ$30m in FY2027 and NZ$70m in FY2028, and asset sales expected to generate NZ$275-300m by December 2026. Management also points to new online market entry as a source of uplift.
Set against that, the core is shrinking. Gaming revenue fell 5.9% in FY2026, with total revenue flat only because non-gaming grew to offset it. The NZ$30m cost programme is roughly the size of the buffer we have taken, which is deliberate: the lock does not require the cost-out to succeed, it requires that the business not fall a further sixth even if the cost-out delivers nothing.
The residual 10% is a second consecutive year of gaming revenue decline that the cost programme fails to offset, or the online market entry consuming more investment than it returns inside FY2027.
RAOSCAFF locks P-323 on 2026-09-03, before the FY2027 result. Scored against underlying EBITDA as reported by SkyCity Entertainment Group for the year to 30 June 2027.
Underlying NZ$181.6m and reported NZ$120.5m for the same year. A threshold between them would resolve both ways. The criterion says which.